The United States’ trade relationships are marked by a complex web of tariffs and ongoing negotiations with key global partners.
Complicating matters further is a federal court’s decision late Wednesday to slap a permanent injunction on most — though not all — of President Donald Trump’s tariff-ic ambitions.
This ruling — which is already being appealed by the administration — significantly weakens Trump’s trade leverage just as negotiations were heating up.
Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket have been trading heavily on what might happen next in terms of tariffs.
Here’s what the U.S. Court of International Trade decided and where things stand.
Liberation Day Tariffs Blocked
Trump’s flashy “Liberation Day” tariffs, imposed April 2 under emergency economic powers, are now dead in the water. That 10% universal tariff on nearly all imports? Gone — for the time being.
No More China, Mexico, Canada Hikes
The court also shut down Trump’s 30% tariffs on China and his 25% tariffs on certain goods from Mexico and Canada, which he claimed were necessary to fight fentanyl trafficking. The judges weren’t buying it.
Permanent Injunction = Total Freeze
The court didn’t just pause things. It issued a permanent injunction, halting the tariffs before Trump could strike “deals” with major trade partners. It’s a full stop.
But Some Tariffs Survive
Not all tariffs were wiped out. The court didn’t touch the 25% duties on autos, auto parts, steel, and aluminum — because those were enacted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, a separate legal channel.
Legal Fault Line
Why the distinction? Trump’s broader tariffs relied on emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The court ruled that law wasn’t meant for blanket economic warfare.
Trade Talks in Limbo
This ruling undercuts Trump’s leverage. Most countries were still in early talks or hadn’t agreed to anything yet. With the tariffs frozen, those negotiations may collapse — or restart on very different terms.
Economic Pressure Eased (For Now)
Importers just got a breather. With the 10% universal tariff halted, consumer prices may stabilize a bit — unless Trump finds a legal workaround. Don’t count that out — especially since the ruling is being appealed.
Bottom Line
Trump tried to weaponize tariffs. The court just pulled the plug on that. Most of his 2025 trade war is now on ice — and his economic playbook took a serious hit. But that doesn’t mean it’s over.
