With Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth under intense scrutiny for multiple security breaches and internal Pentagon turmoil, speculation is mounting about his potential replacement.
While President Trump has publicly defended Hegseth, reports suggest the White House is discreetly exploring alternatives.
Here are some leading contenders.
Joni Ernst
A U.S. Senator from Iowa and a retired National Guard lieutenant colonel, Ernst is a veteran with strong defense credentials. She’s known for her hawkish stance on national security and would be the first woman to hold the position. Popular with Trump’s base and experienced on Senate Armed Services.
- Kalshi says: 20%
Ron DeSantis
The Florida governor is tied for first. Though a veteran, his political energy seems focused elsewhere for now.
- Kalshi says: 20%
No Other Person
This option signals uncertainty—either Hegseth stays, or an unexpected name emerges. It reflects market hesitancy and the unpredictability of Trump’s personnel choices.
- Kalshi says: 18%
Tom Cotton
The Arkansas senator and Army veteran has long been a foreign policy hawk. With a tough stance on China and Iran, Cotton aligns closely with Trump’s worldview. He’s a frequent name in security discussions and brings both experience and political loyalty.
- Kalshi says: 7%
Steve Feinberg
A billionaire financier and co-founder of Cerberus Capital, Feinberg has led the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board and has deep defense industry ties. His influence is quiet but significant—an insider’s insider.
- Kalshi says: 5%
Bill Hagerty
U.S. Senator and former Ambassador to Japan. Business background and strong Trump ally.
- Kalshi says: <1%
Christopher Miller
Former acting Defense Secretary, known for overseeing post-election troop drawdowns in 2020.
- Kalshi says: <1%
Elbridge Colby
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and strong advocate of great power competition strategy, especially concerning China.
- Kalshi says: <1%
Keith Kellogg
Retired general and former National Security Advisor to Vice President Pence.
- Kalshi says: <1%
Mike Gallagher
Former congressman and Marine veteran, once seen as a rising GOP star on national security.
- Kalshi says: <1%
Mike Pompeo
Former CIA Director and Secretary of State. Combative and deeply tied to Trump-era foreign policy.
- Kalshi says: <1%
Mike Rogers
Ex-congressman and former House Intelligence Committee chair. Longshot but seasoned.
- Kalshi says: <1%
Trae Stephens
Venture capitalist and defense tech advocate. Co-founder of Anduril. A wildcard outsider with Silicon Valley defense ties.
- Kalshi says: <1%
Tulsi Gabbard
Former Democratic congresswoman and Army officer. A contrarian voice on foreign policy, her Trump-aligned views could appeal to MAGA realignment advocates.
- Kalshi says: <1%
Wesley Hunt
Freshman congressman, West Point grad, and Army vet. A longshot, but rising star in GOP defense circles.
- Kalshi says: <1%
