President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” is a political Rorschach test — massive tax cuts, deep Medicaid rollbacks, and culture war red meat, all rolled into one.
It narrowly passed the House, but the Senate could still derail it.
Right now, traders on Kalshi think there’s a 23% chance that Trump reduces the deficit … but his bill could trim those odds even more.
If it survives, here’s who cashes in — and who gets crushed.
High-Income Earners and Big Corporations
The biggest windfall goes to the wealthy. With $3.7 trillion in tax cuts on the table, top earners and large corporations are poised to rake in serious gains — especially those who profited from Trump’s 2017 tax law. Everyone else? Not so lucky.
Bay Area Tech Giants
R&D tax deductions return in force, reversing a 2017 change. That’s a jackpot for companies like Meta, Google, and Apple — especially those pumping cash into domestic innovation. It’s also a soft nod to Silicon Valley in an otherwise hostile tech climate.
Parents and Newborns
The bill hikes the child tax credit and creates “Trump Accounts,” giving $1,000 to every baby born from 2025 to 2028. It’s a policy giveaway aimed at parents, dressed up with a marketing bow.
Tipped and Service Workers
Tips and overtime pay would be tax-exempt through 2028 — one of the bill’s few benefits aimed at the working class. But it’s a short-term patch, not a structural fix.
Homeowners in Blue States
The SALT cap jumps from $10,000 to $40,000 for households earning up to $500,000. That’s a big win for affluent homeowners in high-tax states like New York, New Jersey, and California — a.k.a. states that didn’t vote for Trump.
Medicaid Recipients
The CBO estimates nearly 11 million Americans could lose Medicaid coverage by 2034 under this plan. Stricter work requirements and funding cuts hit hard, especially in rural states that ironically helped elect Trump.
Trans Americans on Medicaid
The bill bars Medicaid and ACA plans from covering gender-affirming care. About 185,000 trans adults could lose access to treatments that are already difficult to obtain — another shot in the GOP’s culture war.
Electric Vehicle Industry
EV tax credits get the ax. New fees hit hybrid and electric drivers. Tesla alone could lose more than $3 billion. Green energy isn’t just sidelined — it’s actively punished.
Climate and Renewable Energy
Solar and wind industries stand to lose federal backing as tax credits disappear. The bill doesn’t just ignore climate concerns — it goes out of its way to gut them.
Deficit Hawks
Despite cuts, the bill could add up to $4 trillion to the national deficit. For a party once obsessed with “fiscal responsibility,” this is a hard swerve into red ink — and not everyone’s on board.
