One’s a political juggernaut with a red-hat army. Enter Donald Trump.
The other’s a rocket-slinging billionaire who tweets like a meme lord. Enter Elon Musk.
And they’ve had a very public breakup.
Traders on markets like Kalshi think there’s a solid chance (30%) Musk has his security clearance revoked this year. On the flip side, they think there’s a 47% chance Trump dials up his former friend.
Both polarize, both fascinate, and both think they’re the future.
But in the battle for America’s admiration, there’s only room for one icon. Let’s breakdown who’s winning — by the polls, by the people, and by the sheer weight of public opinion.
National Sides in the Feud
Most Americans don’t want to play favorites — 52% say “neither.” But when pushed, Trump wins the standoff easily: 28% pick him, compared to just 8% for Musk. Elon’s brand may dominate tech headlines, but Trump still owns the cultural spotlight. Musk might be flashy, but Trump is familiar — and familiarity, for many, beats innovation.
Republicans Still Ride With Trump
Among Republican voters, this isn’t even close. 71% say they side with Trump, while only 6% pick Musk. Another 12% say they don’t care for either. The takeaway? Trump is still the undisputed alpha in conservative circles. Musk may have flirted with MAGA vibes, but the base isn’t budging. When it comes to trust, they’d rather bet on a known brawler than a billionaire wild card.
Democrats Want Neither One
Among Democrats, it’s a hard pass all around. A whopping 80% say “neither,” with just 11% supporting Musk and only 4% leaning Trump. While Elon’s politics have gotten harder to pin down, his public persona has alienated the left. Trump, meanwhile, remains their ultimate antagonist. The message from the blue side is loud and clear: keep both of these guys far from the driver’s seat.
Independents Are Tuning Out
Even among independents — supposedly the swing vote in everything — there’s a collective shrug. 59% want no part in choosing. Of those who do, 18% lean Trump and 8% lean Musk. Elon doesn’t have the outsider appeal he thinks he does, and Trump’s brand is still divisive even without the party label. For most independents, the noise from both camps is just that — noise.
Men Favor Trump, Women Bow Out
Men are more likely to take sides, with 30% backing Trump and 11% choosing Musk. Women aren’t playing — 57% go with “neither.” Among Black Americans, that number jumps to 68%. In short, the Trump-Musk feud is a game mostly watched by men, and even then, only some of them. For most others, the whole thing feels like a pointless flex-off.
Elon’s Slide With Conservatives
At one point, Musk was riding high with Republicans — polls showed approval in the 70s. That’s over. His popularity collapsed after publicly clashing with Trump. Now, only 6% of Republicans say they prefer him. Musk’s edgy libertarian streak may have worked when he wasn’t in the ring with Trump. But when you throw a punch at the king, you better not miss.
Approval Ratings: No One’s Winning
Neither man is riding a wave. Trump’s approval sits around 47%, with disapproval near 53%. Musk? He’s less liked than he used to be — roughly 56% of Americans now view him unfavorably. Only about a third see him in a positive light. When you’re a lightning rod for controversy, people notice — but not always in the way you want.
DOGE Isn’t Helping Musk
Musk’s proposed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was meant to shake up bureaucracy. Instead, it’s falling flat. Polls show between 49% and 57% of Americans disapprove, and only about a third are on board. For a guy who prides himself on disruption, this one feels like a flop. Voters aren’t sold on a meme ministry managing real-world policy.
Favorability Face-Off
Trump’s favorability lands in the 42 to 47% range, depending on the poll. Musk’s sits lower — between 35% and 42%. Disapproval for both tops 50%. It’s a reminder that being famous isn’t the same as being liked. In the end, more Americans dislike both men than admire them, but if one had to win this popularity contest, Trump walks away with the belt.
Hot Take: Trump Wins the Feud
If this is a battle for hearts and minds, Trump wins it — not by being beloved, but by being better known and more locked in with his base. Musk may run companies that shape the future, but Trump still shapes the headlines. And while Americans may be tired of both, only one of them still knows how to hold the stage like a champ.
