President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the weekend at Pope Francis’s funeral at the Vatican.
According to news reports, the two leaders met for about 15 minutes and the topic at hand was, as one might have guessed, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. During the conversation, Trump said he didn’t think Russian President Vladimir Putin actually want to end the war that has been raging since February of 2022.
Prediction markets have, of course, responded. Here’s what traders think could happen, as well as the odds.
Will There be a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire in 2025?
This market has been up and down since December. It peaked in March with 78% saying yes, then cratered later in the month. It has since taken an upward turn.
- Polymarket says: 65%
Will Zelenskyy Resign in 2025?
In a word: Unlikely. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has been both leading his country since the start of Russia’s invasion in 2022 and remains popular with his people.
- Polymarket says: 13%
Will Ukraine Hold an Election in 2025?
According to Ukraine’s constitution, the country can’t hold elections under martial law, which has been in effect since Russia’s invasion. And even once it’s lifted, there has to be a six-month wait. Zelenskyy has said he’s open to it. And it’s possible, with some law changes.
- Polymarket says: 29%
Will the U.S. Recognize Russian Sovereignty of Crimea in 2025?
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and the territory has remained a hot topic regarding Russian aggression ever since. Zelenskyy has refused to recognize that Crimea is Russian territory, but Trump has recently said that Crimea will remain in Russian hands.
- Polymarket says: 52%
Will Ukraine Agree to Give Up Land to Russia?
Trump has said that any peace deal between Ukraine and Russia will involve Ukraine ceding territory to Russia, which Zelenskyy has staunchly opposed.
- Polymarket says: 32%
Will EU or NATO Troops Join the Fighting in Ukraine in 2025?
Both EU and NATO leaders have said that that they will not put boots on the ground in Ukraine. And it’s important to note that Ukraine is not a NATO member.
- Polymarket says: 11%
Will Ukraine Agree to Stay Out of NATO
One of Russia’s main sticking points when it comes to a peace deal with Ukraine is that the country not join NATO, despite Zelenskyy consistently advocating for membership.
- Polymarket says: 32%
Outlook on Trump Increasing Sanctions Against Russia Before June
Trump says he’s considering increasing sanctions against Russia, as well as tariffs. From a political perspective, this could be a way to nudge Putin toward the negotiation table.
- Polymarket says: 27%
Will Putin Leave Russian Presidency in 2025?
It’s hard to think of something less likely from a global politics perspective than Putin stepping down as Russian president. He has served his current term since 2012 and, before that, was president from 2000 to 2008.
- Polymarket says: 9%
Will Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy be Seen Together Before July?
I take it back, I found something less likely. The idea that Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin would all get together before July is a bit ridiculous.
- Polymarket says: 4%
