As the political landscape evolves, attention has been turning to the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
With President Donald Trump constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, which has not stopped him for hawking 2028 election merch, both major parties are poised for competitive primaries.
Here are some potential candidates alongside their current odds to win their party’s nomination (including Donald Trump’s!), their backgrounds, and factors that may influence their campaigns.
Setting the Stage for 2028
The 2028 election will take place in a deeply polarized but highly mobilized America. With President Trump term-limited or [likely] exiting the stage, both parties are recalibrating. Key issues — climate, AI, global stability, and economic disparity — could dominate.
Republican Party – Post-Trump Era
If Trump exits politics, the GOP must define itself beyond him. The party remains split between MAGA loyalists and traditional conservatives, setting the stage for an intense primary season. Expect fights over tone, direction, and who inherits Trump’s base.
But what if doesn’t leave and does in fact push for a third term? Speaking on NewsNation, former Trump advisor Steve Bannon said, “President Trump will run and win again in 2028. I’ve already endorsed President Trump. A man like this comes along once every century if we’re lucky.”
Here’s what prediction markets say:
- Kalshi says: 11% Trump will be allowed to run again
- Kalshi says: 10% to win the Republican nomination
- Kalshi says: Regardless, Republicans have a 48% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election
Democratic Party – Rebuilding and Strategizing
If the Democrats lose in 2024, the party will enter 2028 in search of new leadership and message clarity. The progressive/moderate divide will resurface, and younger voters may push for bold change. If they win in 2024, they’ll be seeking continuity and stability.
- Kalshi says: Democrats have 52% of winning the White House in 2028
Republican Contender – JD Vance
Vance, the current Vice President, could be the heir apparent. He blends tech-savvy populism with elite credentials and appeals to working-class conservatives. His challenge? Proving he’s not just a shadow of Trump.
- Kalshi says: 43% to win Republican nomination
Republican Contender – Ron DeSantis
DeSantis remains a top contender with national name ID and strong culture war credentials. Though his 2024 campaign fizzled, he retains deep support among grassroots conservatives. His executive experience in Florida and anti-woke branding could position him for a second act.
- Kalshi says: 5% to win Republican nomination
Republican Contender – Nikki Haley
Haley offers foreign policy chops and a more traditional GOP outlook. As a woman of color with international experience, she brings diversity and pragmatism—but may struggle to unite Trump’s base with more centrist voters.
- Kalshi says: 2% to win Republican nomination
Republican Contender – Glenn Youngkin
Youngkin plays the moderate businessman card. His Virginia victory proved crossover appeal, especially in the suburbs. If the party wants a calm, Reagan-esque reset, he’s a sleeper candidate to watch.
- Kalshi says: 5% to win Republican nomination
Democratic Contender – Kamala Harris
Harris may seek redemption after her 2024 campaign fell short. A former VP with name recognition and deep party ties, she could try again with stronger positioning. But she’ll have to confront critiques about authenticity and political instincts.
- Kalshi says: 5% to win Democratic nomination
Democratic Contender – Gavin Newsom
California’s governor has national ambitions and slick media presence. He positions himself as the liberal counter to Trumpism. His challenge? Convincing middle America he’s not just a coastal elite with good hair and bigger government dreams.
- Kalshi says: 13% to win Democratic nomination
Democratic Contender – Josh Shapiro
Shapiro’s calm, methodical approach in Pennsylvania has won bipartisan praise. He’s pragmatic and respected—and could be the Democrats’ best shot at recapturing swing voters. Quietly rising in visibility.
- Kalshi says: 10% to win Democratic nomination
Democratic Contender – Gretchen Whitmer
Whitmer brings Midwestern credibility, a strong pandemic record, and sharp communication skills. She’s battle-tested and unflinching—qualities that could resonate in an increasingly volatile electorate.
- Kalshi says: 5% to win Democratic nomination
Democratic Contender – Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
AOC would bring a youthquake to the primary if she runs. Her star power is undeniable among Gen Z and progressives. But her national viability remains unproven, and she’d likely face fierce establishment resistance.
- Kalshi says: 11% to win Democratic nomination
Other Potential Contenders
Names like Pete Buttigieg, Tim Scott, Cory Booker, Chris Sununu, or even outsiders like Mark Cuban could emerge. Politics moves fast, and dark horses are always in play—especially in a post-Trump, post-Biden era.
Outlook … as Far as We’re Aware
2028 won’t just be another election—it may be a generational reset. New voices, redefined parties, and unresolved tensions will shape the battlefield. Whether America turns inward or reclaims global leadership, one thing’s clear: the race will be fierce, and the future’s wide open.
