When oil prices surge, it’s not just gas stations that feel the squeeze — entire state economies can wobble.
The pain hits hardest in places where drivers travel the most, industries depend on diesel, and households burn oil to stay warm.
There are a variety of markets on Kalshi speculating about where oil prices might end up given ongoing tensions. And that could mean pain at the pump.
Here’s a look at the states most vulnerable to rising oil prices — and why they could be in serious trouble.
Alaska
Despite being a top oil producer, Alaska’s remote location makes it uniquely vulnerable. Almost everything is shipped or flown in, and higher fuel costs ripple through the entire supply chain. Oil is also a primary heat source in many areas, amplifying the impact.
California
California drivers already pay some of the highest gas prices in the country thanks to taxes and environmental regulations. A global oil spike would push prices even higher, hitting working-class commuters and truck-dependent industries especially hard.
Florida
A tourism hub built on air travel and long drives, Florida would see pressure from both sides — rising fuel costs hitting visitors and locals alike. Cruise lines, airlines, and transport services based in the state would all see expenses spike.
Hawaii
Hawaii imports nearly all of its fuel, and any increase in oil prices has an outsized effect. From gas stations to electric bills (many power plants still run on oil), higher prices hit households fast — and hard.
Louisiana
Refining might help cushion Louisiana’s blow somewhat, but the state is also a major consumer of oil-based products across its petrochemical industry and shipping networks. Rising input costs can reverberate through its economy quickly.
Massachusetts
Northeastern winters make heating oil a necessity — and Massachusetts is one of the top users. Oil price hikes hit home heating bills fast, especially for low-income and older residents who rely on it most.
North Dakota
Oil booms can help, but North Dakota also gets whiplash from volatility. A price spike might help producers short-term, but higher diesel costs hammer agriculture and long-haul trucking, two major sectors in the state.
New York
New York’s heavy reliance on heating oil in upstate regions makes it vulnerable in colder months. High energy prices also squeeze lower-income residents already burdened by steep housing and transit costs.
Texas
Oil-rich Texas might see a revenue boost, but it’s a double-edged sword. High diesel and gasoline prices strain the state’s sprawling transportation network and hit consumers across rural and suburban areas that rely on long commutes.
Wyoming
Big distances, cold winters, and a heavy reliance on trucks mean Wyoming doesn’t escape the squeeze. Even with some oil production, rising costs hurt households and the ag sector quickly.
