With Pope Francis’s passing, speculation about his successor has intensified.
Betting markets are as curious as anyone else and offer a peek into who the next pontiff might be — from names and origins to the timing and number of voting rounds in the conclave, which is set to gather May 7.
Here’s what bettors think the future holds for the Catholic Church.
Likely Name of the Next Pope
It’s traditional for new popes to reflect the continuity and reverence for past pontiffs, but it’s difficult to gauge precisely what the name will be. Here are the top contenders, according to Kalshi.
- Other: 40%
- John: 9%
- John Paul: 8
- Pious: 8%
- Paul: 7%
What Continent Will the Next Pope be From?
Despite the global growth of Catholicism, especially in Africa and Latin America, the market strongly favors a European pontiff, signaling a potential return to Vatican-rooted leadership.
Kalshi says:
- Europe: 67%
- Asia: 21%
- Africa: 15%
- North America: 2%
- South America: <1%
What Country Will the Next Pope be From?
A familiar trend — Italy continues to dominate predictions. With deep ties to the Vatican and a long papal lineage, the Italian cardinals remain heavy favorites for reclaiming the papacy.
Kalshi says:
- Italy: 54%
- Philippines: 19%
- Ghana: 10%
- Hungary: 6%
- Algeria: 2%
- Democratic Republic of the Congo: 1%
Timing of the Announcement
It’s not just a meeting — it’s the meeting. The moment the doors of the Sistine Chapel close and the world holds its breath. Cardinals from across the globe lock themselves in, no phones, no press, no outside influence. Just prayer and politics. They cast ballots. Burn them. Repeat. Until the smoke turns white — and a new pope walks out into history.
Markets suggest an announcement could be imminent. Or, at least, relatively fast, since the conclave gathers May 7.
Kalshi says:
- Before May 9: 66%
- Before May 16: 93%
- Before June 16: 98%
How Many Rounds Will it Take to Choose the Next Pope?
Though papal elections can drag on, the current betting odds imply a relatively swift decision—perhaps due to consensus among senior clergy or limited ideological rifts.
Kalshi says:
- 5-6 rounds: 34%
- 3-4 rounds: 24%
- 7-8 rounds: 17%
- 9-10 rounds: 11%
- 11-14 rounds: 9%
- 2 or less rounds: 6%
- 15-19 rounds: 3%
- 20 or more rounds: 2%
