We’re onto Day 2 of the conclave, and we’ve already seen a puff of black smoke. That means the College of Cardinals will cast their fourth and potentially fifth round of votes later on Thursday.
Once a decision—or indecision—is in, the Vatican will send another smoke signal. Black smoke indicates that they have yet to reach a two-thirds majority, while white smoke indicates a new pope has chosen.
If the conclave is extended, it could mean that dark horse candidates are coming into play, as the 133 voting cardinals have not come to a consensus with the initial top tier of candidates, which includes names like Pietro Paolin and Luis Antonio Tagle.
Here’s who is next on deck, according to prediction markets like Kalshi, if the favorites don’t make the cut.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (10%)
The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem’s name is catching buzz in Rome, and not just because ‘Pizza’ is in it. He has the best last name, there’s no debating that, and it would be shame to lose it if selected as pope. In any case, there’s many reasons to like him as a papal candidate, including his experience in the Holy Land while overseeing the pastoral care of Hebrew-speaking Catholics amid ongoing regional conflicts, including October 7th and the subsequent Gaza war.
Read more: Pope Betting Favorites, Top Candidates As Conclave Kicks Off
Matteo Zuppi (8%)
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (born 1955) has spent his life mixing street-level outreach with high-stakes diplomacy. A Sant’Egidio kid who helped nudge Mozambique’s civil war toward peace in ’92, he was ordained in ’81, made a Rome auxiliary in 2012, sent to bike-friendly Bologna as archbishop in 2015, and got his red hat in 2019. Now president of Italy’s bishops, the ever-smiling “Don Matteo” bounces from parish coffee chats to shuttle diplomacy in Kyiv, Moscow, D.C., and Beijing. His mantra: skip the bunker mentality—meet people where they are, speak honestly about Jesus, and keep the conversation going
Zuppi would be seen as a continuity candidate who will carry on his predecessor’s legacy—which could hurt his chances as much as it will helps.
Peter Erdo (6%)
The top choice amongst conservative Catholics, the Hungarian cardinal would be a pivot from Francis and a return to a more traditional papacy like we saw with Pope Benedict XVI.
Despite his staunch conservatism, he did not pick fights with Francis, which may keep him in the good graces of more liberal electors—81 of whom Francis appointed. Some speculate that the pendulum could very well swing back to the right following Francis’ inclusive pastoral tenure.
Peter Turkson (6%)
There has never been a black Pope, but that could change during this Conclave, which many have called the most diverse conclave in the history of papal elections. The African voting bloc is larger than ever, too, and leans conservative. This bloc could form a coalition with other conservative cardinals from around the globe. Turkson himself, is considered a moderate, which could prompt him as a compromise candidate for cardinals who are looking for a return to the center but not too far to the right.
Francis Prevost (2%)
Just as there’s never been a black pope, there has also never been an American pope. A Chicago native, however, has reportedly been discussed as a papabile (the Italian term for cardinals who are considered likely candidates to become next pope). The Pillar reports that his name has received pushback due to some scandals, such as mishandling clerical allegations.
Dominique Mamberti (2%)
Who some have called “Francis without the baggage,” Cardinal Dominique Mamberti’s experience could ascend him to the throne if the conclave stretches into the weekend Mamberti, 73, is a French prelate who spent three decades in the Holy See’s diplomatic corps—posting to conflict zones like Sudan, representing the Vatican at the U.N., and, in 2006, becoming the Holy See’s “foreign minister” as Secretary for Relations with States. Pope Francis moved him from diplomacy to justice in 2014, naming him Prefect of the Apostolic Signatura (the Church’s supreme court), and created him cardinal the following year.
Mamberti is admired for his cool‐headed crisis management, deep knowledge of Vatican governance, and lack of attachment to any ideological bloc—qualities that have led some cardinals to float him as a bridge-building, consensus papabile should front-runners stall.
