As the conclave kicks off in Rome, the world is wondering: Who will be the next pope?
It’s one of the most secretive electoral processes, as the 133 voting cardinals take an oath to secrecy and deliberate behind closed doors.
There’s no exit polling, no public statements, and little information is known aside from the background of the College of Cardinals, which this year includes 81 of whom were appointed by Pope Frances.
Despite the secrecy, favorites have emerged on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, and the odds will react in real time as ballots are cast and smoke signals appear from the Vatican.
Here’s the papal candidates with the most buzz heading into Day 1 of the conclave.
Pietro Parolin (30%)
Widely viewed as the centrist option thanks to his deep Curia résumé, the Vatican secretary of state shot to the top of the betting boards early on. Lately, though, his price has drifted—slipping from 31% to 25 %. However, as of Wednesday morning, Parolin is back to 30%.
Luis Antonio Tagle (20%)
The other main contender was holding firm near the top until the last 12 hours, as his odds have fallen from 25% to 19% on the eve of the Conclave. One Vatican watcher predicts the former Manila archbishop could start with around 40 first‑ballot votes. Hailing from the Philippines, Tagle can rely on a fast‑growing bloc of Asian electors and is sometimes dubbed the “Asian Francis.” That may resonate with an electorate in which 81 cardinals were created by Francis, though some voters might now lean toward a slightly more centrist figure.
Together, Parolin and Tagle form a clear top tier in the wagering markets, with nearly a 50% chance that one of them ascends.
Matteo Zuppi (10%)
Cheerful and pastoral, the Bologna archbishop—also Pope Francis’s envoy for Ukraine—is viewed as a near‑seamless extension of the current pontificate. That “continuity” label could become a liability if the conclave wants even a modest course correction.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (10%)
The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem wins the prize for most memorable surname, yet his relative youth raises eyebrows. At 60, he could reign for twenty‑plus years, a longevity some electors might find risky for the Church.
Péter Erdő (7%)
Once among the youngest cardinals, the Hungarian primate is known for his staunch conservatism and close ties to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. During Europe’s immigration crisis, Erdo seemed to back Orban’s nationalist stance, saying that taking in refugees would amount to human trafficking. He maintained collegial rapport with Francis, however, and some argue he’s not a hardline conservative as the media paints him out to be. With solid backing in Europe—and potentially among like‑minded African electors—could lift him in later ballots, yet his ideological stance may feel too far right for a body in which 81 members were created by Francis.
Pope Predictions
The bottom line is that there is a top tier—Parolin and Tagle—then everyone else. Still, early ballots can reshuffle the deck quickly. The Pillar notes that cardinals across the ideological spectrum remain unsure of their opening votes—hinting at a far more open race than most headlines suggest. That uncertainty keeps a spotlight on the potential surprise candidates lurking just behind the favorites.
But when it comes to candidates like Pizzaball, Zuppi, and Erdo, all three face major hurdles—be it age, alignment or lack thereof with their predecessor, or perceived rigidity and trouble geopolitical ties. Those obstacles suggest their market prices and betting odds may be a touch overvalued, even if the frontrunners falter. Tomorrow, so long as there’s black smoke tonight, we’ll take a closer look at dark horse candidates who can potentially ascend to the papacy.
