President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” may sound like a patriotic overhaul.
But beneath the branding, it’s a sweeping blueprint for slashing social programs, gutting the courts, and shifting power hard toward the executive branch … all while blowing a hole in the federal budget. Don’t believe me? Prediction markets like Kalshi forecast the final version of the bill to cost at least $4 TRILLION>
Let’s take a look at the myths and the facts.
Myth 1: The Bill Doesn’t Add to the Deficit
Claim: The “One Big Beautiful Bill” is fully paid for and won’t run up the national tab.
Reality: Not even close. Independent analysts, including the Congressional Budget Office, say it’ll pile on somewhere between $3 to $4 trillion in new debt over the next decade. In fact, traders on Polymarket put the odds of the national debt surpassing $38 trillion in 2025 at 83%.
Turns out, slashing taxes while increasing spending isn’t exactly a break-even equation.
Myth 2: Medicaid and Medicare Are Protected
Claim: The bill protects core health care programs like Medicaid and Medicare.
Reality: Actually, it shreds them. Medicaid would see $600 billion in cuts, while Medicare could get whacked by $500 billion through automatic spending caps. Millions of Americans could see less care, fewer services, and more red tape.
Myth 3: Tax Cuts Help Everyone Equally
Claim: The bill is a tax cut bonanza for all Americans, rich or poor.
Reality: That’s spin. Yes, low-income folks get a short-term break — like no taxes on tips and an expanded child tax credit — but those vanish in 2028. Meanwhile, high-income earners get permanent cuts. Guess who wins that game.
Myth 4: It Respects Judicial Independence
Claim: The bill doesn’t mess with checks and balances.
Reality: It definitely does. A buried provision blocks federal courts from holding government officials in contempt, even if they ignore court orders. That’s a power grab — plain and simple.
Myth 5: LGBTQ+ Health Care Is Left Alone
Claim: The bill doesn’t touch health care access for LGBTQ+ individuals.
Reality: It goes straight for the jugular. Medicaid and CHIP are banned from covering gender-affirming care — for adults and kids alike. And it opens the door for states and insurers to deny that care entirely.
Myth 6: Gun Laws Stay the Same
Claim: The bill doesn’t touch firearm regulations.
Reality: Not true. The bill removes the $200 tax on silencers and scraps their federal registration requirement. Advocates say it protects hearing — critics say it makes it harder to hear danger coming.
Myth 7: It Has Nothing to Do With Project 2025
Claim: OBBB is totally separate from Project 2025.
Reality: It’s straight out of the Project 2025 playbook. It centralizes executive power, guts federal agency independence, and overhauls the civil service. The fingerprints match.
