Moving Day has arrived in Georgia, as golfers continue to navigate Augusta National Golf Club in their pursuit of the coveted and elusive green jacket.
The field is also battling for their portion of the $20 million purse, $3.6 million of which will land in the winner’s bank account.
Defending champion Scottie Scheffler sits merely three strokes back from the clubhouse leader, Justin Rose, while the eccentric turncoat Bryson DeChambeau and PGA Tour loyalist Rory McIlroy sit side by side, trailing Rose by one and two strokes, respectively.
Indeed, the stars came out to play, delivering a dream leaderboard and setting up a weekend that will surely be filled with fireworks.
But who will win? If I knew, I wouldn’t be writing this; I do, however, know where to look.
$40 million and counting has been traded on that very question on Kalshi, a prediction marketplace, where the current forecasts shed light with real-time win probabilities for each golfer.
As Round 3 tees off, here are the 10 golfers with the best chances to win the Masters.
Rory McIlroy (23%)
Position:T3 (-6)
Strokes Back: 2
The Northern Irishman is looking for his first major in 11 years, a long drought for one of the best golfers of all time. It’s not about ending a drought, though; a green jacket would complete McIlroy’s career Grand Slam.
He’s hitting the ball well enough to do just that, gaining 3.58 strokes alone with his approach shots in Round 2.
Bryson DeChambeau (21%)
Position: 2nd (-7)
Strokes back: 1
DeChambeau is putting the LIV Tour on his back, muscling his way into solo second at 7-under following a bogey-free 67 on Friday.
DeChambeau has had previous success playing championship golf, but this is by far the closest he’s been to sniffing a win at Augusta. Can you keep it up or will he eventually fold?
Scottie Scheffler (18%)
Position: T5 (-5)
Strokes back: 3
The Texan could become only the second golfer in the history of the sport to win three Masters within four years. The craziest part? He’s only 28.
He’s been the best golfer in the world for several seasons now, and it hasn’t been particularly close. He and we all know Scheffler knows how to close on this course, but he needs to tighten up his approach shots and have som putts fall.
Justin Rose (11%)
Position: 1st (-8)
Strokes back: N/A
The 44-year-old is no stranger to Augusta, having played at the Masters 19 times and making the cut 16 of those. The pain, though, the pain…Rose has two 2nd-place finishes, another top 5, and six total top 10s.
The green jacket is elusive, especially for the Englishman. Rose has a real chance to go wire-to-wire, but he’s going to need to shoot lower Saturday than he did Friday in order to keep the two guys we’ve already talked about off his heels.
Corey Conners (6%)
Position: T3 (-6)
Strokes back: 2
The Canadian has made a habit of showing up at the Masters, recording three top-10 finishes between 2020-22. After a missed cut and a T38 the last two seasons, Conners is back in the hunt.
Though he’s tied for 3rd, his win chances are about one-fourth of McIlroys. In fact, there’s a big drop-off from the top tier (above) and Conners, who simply isn’t the same pedigree of golfer as the first four on the list. Still, he has a puncher’s chance. Conners has gained 1.3 strokes with his irons, and another 1.34 with his short stick. If we’re being honest, it’s difficult to see Conners, who is notoriously. a bad putter, stay hot on the greens through the weekend.
Shane Lowry (5%)
Position: T5 (-5)
Strokes back: 3
Now this is someone to watch out for who is further back in the pack. The 2019 Open Champion, Lowry has brought his major pedigree to Augusta this year and has the ability to go very low and make up ground on any given day.
Lowry’s short-game creativity and calm under pressure are serving him well — he his gaining 1.4 strokes on the green and 1.88 with his approach shots. He knows how to handle tough conditions and big moments. Certainly don’t count him out this weekend.
Tyrell Hatton (4%)
Position: T5 (-5)
Strokes back: 3
A LIV defector, Hatton is trying his hardest to represent the struggling PGA alternative tour alongside DeChambeau. Despite losing 0.72 strokes on the greens, Hatton his staying within arm’s reach thanks to his superb play everywhere else.
He has 1.28 strokes around the green, 2.08 with his approach shots, 1 stroke off the tee. If he can figure out his putter, he can definitely pose a threat to the guys at the top come Sunday.
Viktor Hovland (4%)
Position: T9 (-4)
Strokes back: 4
It’s no secret Hovland struggles with his short game, and that’s what’s plaguing him once again. Hovland has given up 0.64 strokes to the field around the green but his making up for it with an atypically hot putter that has gained 2 strokes on Augusta’s trick greens.
If we’re being honest, I simply don’t see how he maintains that for another two rounds.
Jason Day (4%)
Position: T9 (-4)
Strokes back: 4
The veteran Aussie is lurking at -4 despite struggling a bit off the tee (-0.2 strokes), but reinventing himself this week with vintage stellar form elsewhere. The former World No. 1 has carded back-to-back 70s, keeping himself firmly in touch with the leaders
Day knows what it’s like to contend at Augusta – he’s had multiple close calls here – and he’s a major champion (2015 PGA).
Colin Morikawa (3%)
Position: T12 (-3)
Strokes back: 5
Morikawa’s road to the weekend was a rollercoaster. The two-time major champion got as low as 3-under on Thursday before a late-round slide – bogeys on 15, 16, and 18 – dropped him back to even-par for the day. He bounced back on Friday, racking up five birdies on his was to a 3-under 69.
He has a lot of catching up to do, maybe too much, but he’s every much as talented as the guys at the top of the leaderboard. Never say never.
