In a dramatic escalation of Middle East tensions, Israel has launched a large-scale military strike against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and military infrastructure in what Israeli officials describe as a preemptive effort to halt Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program.
The attack, which took place overnight, involved dozens of Israeli aircraft and reportedly struck multiple sites across Iran, including locations believed to be central to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Explosions were reported in Tehran, and airports in the Iranian capital were temporarily closed. While the full extent of the damage remains unclear, some reports suggest that high-ranking Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists may have been among the casualties.
Here’s what happened, why the attacks were carried out, and what’s likely to come next .
Targets of the Attack
Israel struck nuclear facilities, including the Natanz enrichment plant, ballistic missile sites, and Revolutionary Guard bases, killing key Iranian commanders and nuclear scientists.
Online prediction markets, such as Polymarket, had previously placed the odds of an Israeli strike on Iran at at 50% by July. With the attack now a reality, attention has shifted to questions about how Iran will respond and whether the conflict could draw in other countries or spiral into a larger war. Markets are now closely tracking the likelihood of Iranian retaliation, the potential for U.S. involvement, and the impact on global oil prices.
Why Israel Acted
Israel claims Iran was dangerously close to developing nuclear weapons. The attack, named “Operation Rising Lion,” aimed to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb capability.
“Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival. This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat,” said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Was the U.S. Involved?
The United States, while a close ally of Israel, has publicly stated it was not involved in the operation. President Trump emphasized that U.S. forces in the region are on high alert but are not participating in the conflict, focusing instead on the safety of American personnel and interests.
“Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement.
“Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel,” he added.
According to prediction markets, there’s roughly a 30% chance the U.S. takes military action against Iran by July.
Economic Impact
The attack rattled global markets, with gold and oil prices surging and stock indices dipping amid fears of broader regional instability.
How Long Will It Last?
In a seven minute video, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the operation will last “as many day as it takes.”
In other words, the duration of the conflict is open-ended.
Brace for Retaliation
Following the strike, Israel declared a nationwide state of emergency, with air raid sirens sounding in cities across the country. Authorities have warned citizens to remain vigilant, anticipating that Iran could retaliate with missile or drone attacks in the coming hours or days.
Iran is expected to retaliate through proxies such as Hezbollah, cyberattacks, or attacks on Israeli assets abroad, raising fears of long-term escalation.
Prediction market traders forecast a 70% chance of Iran striking Israel by Friday.
Military Readiness Across the Region
Middle Eastern nations and U.S. forces are on heightened alert, preparing for potential conflicts and tightening security measures across the Persian Gulf.
Will US-Iran Make New Nuclear Deal?
On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market exchange, users can actually bet on whether the United States and Iran will reach a new nuclear deal this year. The two countries were previously in negotiations before the attacks, though may think Iran was simply stalling.
Now, traders are giving a new deal a 30% chance by the end of of the year.
Long-term Outcomes
Possible long-term outcomes include intensified conflict, new diplomatic negotiations, or a temporary but uneasy truce to prevent war.
The odds of Iran closing the the Strait of Hormuz this year has shot up to 42% over the last 24 hours. This time last week, that scenario was merely at 20%.
In any case, the confrontation underscores the ongoing global tension over nuclear proliferation, the volatile balance of power in the Middle East, and the fragile line between diplomatic solutions and military conflict.
