There are significant concerns over the possibility of a recession this year. Most of it stems from the U.S.’s continuing trade war and a slew of government layoffs — all of which have done damage to America’s economic outlook.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket have the odds of a recession — where the economy ends up declining for two consecutive quarters — in 2025 at around 40%. That’s a not-insignificant number and reflects a fairly grim view of the country’s economic standing.
But all is not lost. There are businesses that are, for lack of a better term, recession proof.
Here are seven.
Grocery Stores And Discount Retailers
People will always need the essentials — running out of toilet paper is a unique horror — and budget-conscious shopping increases during downturns. Think Walmart, Costco, and Dollar General.
Health Care And Pharmaceuticals
Medical needs don’t decline in a recession. Hospitals, drug manufacturers, and even generic medicine brands will stay strong because, as unfortunate as it is, illness does not care about our bank accounts.
Auto Repair And Maintenance
When there’s an economic downturn, people hold onto their cars longer instead of buying new ones. That means those vehicles need more repairs and servicing. Make fun of the hand-me-down sedans all you want, but if it’s getting people where they need to go, that’s all that matters.
Utilities And Energy Providers
This is another blue-collar gig that won’t be going away. Electricity, water, and gas are non-negotiable expenses, making these businesses steady even in tough times.
Plumbing And Repairs
Related to the above, plumbing and utility repairs aren’t optional — when your boiler quits or the water stops running, you can’t just ignore it. That makes this kind of work essential, no matter the economy. Whether you’re an independent contractor or running your own repair business, there will always be demand, making it one of the more recession-proof industries out there.
Funeral Homes
If there’s one thing you can count on in life, it’s that you won’t be in it forever. And for the funeral industry, that’s not a problem—it’s the business model.
Unlike stock markets, housing bubbles, or trendy tech startups, death doesn’t have a boom-and-bust cycle. It doesn’t pause when the economy dips, nor does it scale back spending when times are tough. No matter how deep a recession cuts, people are still, well… checking out. And somebody has to handle the final arrangements.
Debt Collection And Financial Services
Sorry to leave you on a bit of a bummer, but unfortunately financial struggles rise in recessions, which keeps credit management and debt collection agencies in business.
