As the U.S. gears up for the July 4th holiday, weather watchers are eyeing a brewing disturbance in the Atlantic.
Could it evolve into something more dangerous — or fizzle out before fireworks?
Kalshi traders think there’s a 63% chance we see more than 16 storms this year alone. That’s … quite a lot. Polymarket traders seem a little more reserved, with a 37% chance of 16-19.
Whether (weather?) it will ruin your holiday is (to double-load puns here) up in the air. But here’s what you need to know.
A Watchful Eye on the Coast
NOAA’s latest 7-day outlook flags a low-end tropical disturbance near a stalled front off the Southeast U.S. coast. Forecasters say it might gain tropical or subtropical characteristics heading into the weekend.
Where It Might Head
Models suggest any development would likely track near Florida or into the eastern Gulf. While no storm has formed yet, the area has the warm waters and unstable atmosphere needed to fuel a system fast.
A Delayed Season Wakes Up
2025 got off to a slow start. Tropical Storm Andrea formed late — on June 24, the latest first storm since 2014. But things ramped up fast: Barry formed just four days later and briefly threatened Mexico.
The Bigger Picture
NOAA’s seasonal forecast warns of an above-normal hurricane season:
- 13–19 named storms
- 6–10 hurricanes
- 3–5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
This is fueled by record-warm waters and a fading El Niño.
A Hot, Hungry Ocean
Sea surface temperatures across the Gulf and Atlantic are unusually warm. That’s fuel for storms. If anything forms, it could intensify fast—especially near land.
A Blind Spot in the System
Forecasters are also facing a challenge: one of their key satellite tools, used for tracking storm strength at night, is down. That means more guesswork when every hour can count.
Holiday Risk: Low, But Not Zero
Right now, there’s no named storm threatening the U.S. But the system near the coast has a small chance of forming. And if it does, it could develop quickly near populated areas.
Stay Ready, Not Scared
If you live near the Gulf or Southeast coast, it’s a good weekend to:
- Review your hurricane plan
- Keep an eye on NHC updates
- Enable severe weather alerts on your phone
Preparedness, not panic, is the goal.
The Season Ahead
Even if the holiday passes quietly, the Atlantic is waking up. With peak season still ahead and forecasting tools partially degraded, this year could get bumpy. The time to prep is now.
