ICE is jacking up immigration enforcement numbers, but the people getting swept up?
Most have never been convicted of a crime.
It’s not a dragnet for public safety — it’s a numbers game. And it’s playing out nationwide.
Right now, traders on Polymarket think there’s a 59% chance of President Trump deporting between 250,000 and 500,000 in 2025 — and we seem to be on track to lose more immigrants than we gain.
Here’s what you need to know.
What ICE Actually Does
ICE has two main divisions:
- ERO (Enforcement and Removal Operations): Tracks down, detains, and deports undocumented immigrants.
- HSI (Homeland Security Investigations): Investigates international crime — trafficking, smuggling, cyber fraud, etc.
But right now, ERO is doing all the work. And not the kind that seems to make anyone safer.
The Arrest Surge
In May, a new directive told ICE to step it up — no matter who they grabbed.
In January 2025, ICE averaged about 32 noncriminal arrests per day.
By June, that number hit 453 per day.
That’s a 1,300% increase in under six months.
And yes, you read that right: noncriminal arrests.
What the Numbers Say
According to ICE’s own data (and the CATO Institute’s breakdown):
204,297 people were processed as of mid-June.
65% had no criminal convictions at all.
93% had no violent convictions.
Nearly 9 in 10 hadn’t been convicted of anything you’d call a threat to public safety.
Among those with convictions, more than half were for things like traffic violations or immigration paperwork.
This isn’t about “bad hombres.” It’s about getting people into cells.
The Cost of It All
ICE is federally funded for 38,000 detention beds a day — but they regularly blow past that. Every detainee costs between $150 and $200 per day to hold.
That’s taxpayer money going to hold moms, dads, and teenagers with no records.
Why Now?
With Title 42 gone and an election looming, this crackdown looks more like a PR campaign than policy. This isn’t about stopping crime — it’s about looking tough.
ICE agents say they’ve been told to hit arrest quotas. Some have been pulled off real criminal investigations to help fill vans.
Who’s Being Targeted
This surge isn’t just hitting the undocumented.
It’s catching:
- People with legal status
- Folks showing up to court dates
- Even a few U.S. citizens have been detained by mistake
The system isn’t precise. It’s wide. And right now, that’s by design.
Inside the Agency
Morale inside ICE is allegedly tanking.
Agents are saying it’s “quantity over quality”
HSI work is suffering while ERO chases soft targets
Internal leaks describe frustration, burnout, and disillusionment
What This Means
ICE says it’s protecting the country.
But most people being arrested aren’t dangerous. They’re just available.
And that tells you everything about what this operation really is: A political show disguised as law enforcement.
