The Atlantic hurricane season is off to its slowest start in over a decade. But don’t let the calm fool you — forecasters say the quiet won’t last. With ocean temperatures soaring and La Niña conditions on the horizon, the peak months of 2025 could bring an onslaught of storms. Here’s what we know so far — and why it’s not time to relax.
With one named storm so far and forecasts pointing to an above-average year, coastal communities and inland areas alike should prepare for what could be an intense peak season.
Polymarket traders think there’s a 25% chance a hurricane makes U.S. landfall before August. And a 14% chance a Category 5 one lands during the season.
Here’s what you need to know.
Season Overview
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30. As of June 25, only one named storm — Tropical Storm Andrea — has formed. That makes this the latest start since 2014, when Hurricane Arthur didn’t show up until July. The lack of early activity may seem like a relief, but historically, it means little about how violent the peak months could be.
First Storm – Tropical Storm Andrea
Andrea formed in the central Atlantic on June 24, packing winds around 40 mph. It never posed a threat to land and quickly weakened. Still, it broke the silence and kicked off the 2025 season — right on the heels of a month that had meteorologists raising eyebrows over the lack of action.
Forecasts Point to Trouble
NOAA projects an above-average season: 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Colorado State University expects 17 named storms, including 9 hurricanes and 4 majors. Several other forecasting centers echo this bullish outlook. The message is clear: things may look quiet now, but the odds of a stormy second half are high.
Why the High Forecast?
Three major ingredients are driving these predictions: abnormally warm sea surface temperatures, weakening El Niño patterns trending toward La Niña, and reduced wind shear. On top of that, while Saharan dust has helped suppress early development, that lid won’t hold forever. Once the dust clears and the Atlantic warms further, conditions will be ripe.
Historical Patterns Say Buckle Up
The quiet start isn’t unique. Several high-impact years — including 2004 and 2017 — also had delayed starts. Most Atlantic hurricane activity happens between mid-August and mid-October. And with ocean heat content building rapidly, we could be looking at a compressed but intense season. In short: don’t get comfortable.
What About the Pacific?
The Eastern Pacific has already had a more active year. Hurricane Erick, a Category 4, made headlines for becoming the earliest major hurricane to hit Mexico’s Pacific coast. While it doesn’t impact Atlantic systems directly, it’s a reminder that storm energy is already in play — and that the atmosphere is primed globally.
Sept. 10 — Mark Your Calendar
Statistically, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10. That’s when conditions usually align for the most frequent and powerful storms. So while the season feels like a slow burn now, it’s likely to ignite around late summer. Be ready before it gets there.
Inland Areas Are Still At Risk
Just because you’re not on the coast doesn’t mean you’re safe. Inland flooding, tornadoes, and extended power outages often accompany landfilling hurricanes. DC may not be in the direct path of most storms, but the region can still feel the punch of a major system moving up the coast or inland from the Gulf.
Preparedness Isn’t Optional
Now’s the time to check your hurricane plan. Have an evacuation route. Restock supplies — especially water, batteries, food, and medications. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center and local emergency management updates. And don’t wait until the winds start blowing to get serious.
Stay Sharp, Stay Ready
The 2025 hurricane season may have hit snooze — but it’s waking up. With all indicators flashing red for a busy second half, the smart move is to prepare now. Know the forecasts, watch the water, and stay ready for whatever’s coming.
