Birthright citizenship has long been a bedrock of American identity, rooted in the 14th Amendment’s guarantee that anyone born on U.S. soil is a citizen.
But in 2025, that foundation shook. With a sweeping executive order, Donald Trump reignited the fight over who gets to belong — and who decides.
What followed was a legal and political firestorm, a Supreme Court sidestep, and a nation left navigating the uncertain terrain of citizenship in real time.
Right now, traders on Kalshi think there’s a 20% chance Trump’s order goes into effect this year. So let’s break it down.
A Constitutional Pillar Under Fire
For over a century, the 14th Amendment guaranteed U.S. citizenship to anyone born on American soil. But a new executive order and a controversial Supreme Court decision have set the stage for one of the most consequential legal fights in generations.
The Executive Order
EO 14160: Trump Targets Birthright Citizenship
Signed on Jan. 20, 2025, Trump’s order strips automatic citizenship from children born in the U.S. to undocumented parents or those on temporary visas. The move sparked immediate lawsuits and constitutional challenges.
The Legal Pushback
Courts Strike Early — For Now
Federal judges in Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and D.C. issued injunctions blocking the order, citing strong evidence it violates the 14th Amendment. But those blocks may not hold everywhere.
The Supreme Court Steps In
Trump v. CASA: A Ruling on Procedure, Not Principle
On June 27, 2025, the Court ruled 6-3 that lower courts can’t issue nationwide injunctions. They didn’t decide on the constitutionality of birthright citizenship — they just narrowed the tools to fight it.
The Fractured Fallout
Patchwork Protections, Uneven Citizenship
Because of the ruling, birthright protections may now depend on where a child is born — or whether their parents are part of a class-action lawsuit. The result: legal chaos.
Who’s at Risk?
150,000 Newborns in Legal Limbo
Roughly 150,000 children born each year could be denied U.S. citizenship if the order takes full effect. The stakes are highest for families living in states without legal protections in place.
What the Justices Said
Barrett’s Opinion Limits Relief, Not Rights
Justice Barrett’s majority opinion emphasized “complete relief” for plaintiffs — not broad injunctions. The liberal justices warned this guts judicial oversight and endangers constitutional rights.
The Fight Isn’t Over
Class Actions, New Suits, and the Road Ahead
Civil rights groups are rushing to certify class actions to restore broader protections. The Supreme Court may eventually take up the full constitutional question — but until then, the legal battlefield is fractured.
Why It Matters
Citizenship, Redefined
This isn’t just a legal skirmish — it’s a test of what it means to be American. The fate of birthright citizenship now hangs on lawsuits, legal strategy, and who gets to be counted.
