As Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” winds through the Senate, prediction market traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are putting their money where their mouths are—pricing everything from the bill’s odds of passage to whether it’ll slash Medicaid or raise the SALT cap. The result? A real-time, crowd-sourced forecast of what the final legislation might look like…and when it willl finally land on Trump’s desk.
Here’s everything we know.
Meet the “Big Beautiful Bill”
President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) is the catch‑all budget reconciliation package House Republicans passed 215‑214 back in May. It extends the 2017 tax cuts, controversially cuts back clean‑energy incentives for solar and wind power projects, beefs up defense spending and significantly tightens eligibility for Medicaid and SNAP.
Why It Matters
Because the bill is moving under reconciliation, Senate Republicans can pass it with 51 votes and no filibuster. That keeps OBBBA on a fast track—but also exposes individual provisions to the Byrd Rule, raising real doubt over what will survive.
Sticker Shock vs. Savings Spin
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) pegs the House version at $3.3 trillion in added debt, while the White House insists it delivers $1.7 trillion in mandatory savings, which is a pretty charitable interpretation of it all.
Traders on Kalshi see through the talking points: They say it will cost at least $4 trillion but no more than $4.5 trillion.
Will the Senate Beat the Clock?
Kalshi’s contract “Senate passes a reconciliation bill before July 2” is trading at roughly 75 ¢, implying a 3-in-4 chance that the upper chamber wraps things up by before Independence Day. The price has surged from the 30s just a few days ago.
Odds the Bill Becomes Law in 2025
A companion market that asks whether any reconciliation bill becomes law before August 1 is priced around 99¢—a strong signal traders still expect something to reach the President’s desk this summer, even if the Senate unexpectedly misses its self‑imposed July 4 target.
How Many Megabills?
Kalshi’s “How many reconciliation bills will pass in 2025?” contract gives “Exactly 1” the highest price, reflecting consensus that OBBBA is likely the GOP’s lone shot this year. “0 bills” has been stuck below 10 cents for weeks.
Medicaid on the Chopping Block
A dedicated market asks whether the first reconciliation bill to become law will cut at least $500 billion from Medicaid. Trading volumes are thin, but “Yes” is at 88%.
SALT Cap Sweetener
Wall‑Street‑friendly traders see relief coming for high‑tax states: the “SALT cap raised to $40k or above” line is pricing at 93–94¢, while a bump to $50k sits near 4¢. The market implies lawmakers stop at $40k to keep costs (somewhat) contained.
What Makes the Final Cut?
Kalshi’s multipart “What will be in the next reconciliation bill?” series lets users bet on individual planks—from child‑tax‑credit extensions to EV‑tax‑credit repeals. Prices gyrate with every amendment filed, giving an hour‑by‑hour read on which lobby is winning.
How to Trade It
Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange where each “Yes” or “No” contract settles at $1. Buy at 40¢ and it resolves “Yes”? You pocket 60¢. Maximum position sizes run to $25,000, and there are exchange fees for “takers.” Always remember: you’re trading on an event outcome, not investing in the underlying policy.
Prediction Markets vs. Pundits
Prediction markets aren’t polls—they’re price signals backed by money. During last year’s debt‑ceiling fight Kalshi’s odds nailed the exact day Congress would act, and academic work finds liquid prediction markets routinely outperform pundits. The platform’s new $2 billion valuation suggests investors believe the crowd keeps beating the experts.
Bottom Line
If you want a real‑time read on how Washington’s summer blockbuster ends, the fastest refresh button may be the Kalshi order book.
