March Madness, so far, has lacked much madness. While there were some excellent Sweet 16 games, the favorites prevailed.
There have been no Cinderella stories this year, but what that really means is that we get star-studded Elite 8 and Final Four matchups, with the best teams and players in the nation clashing on the hardwood.
Here’s a look at the title chances for each team left in the tournament.
Note: Probabilities provided by prediction market platform Kalshi.
Duke Blue Devils
NCAA tournament results so far: Defeated No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s 93-49; defeated No. 9 Baylor 89-66; defeated No. 4 Arizona 100-93
Led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, it’s no surprise that Duke has the best odds to win the national title. The Blue Devils, however, did struggle against Arizona in the Elite 8. Might they have shown their weakness?
In any case, expect a shootout in the Elite 8, as Duke faces the fast-paced Alabama Crimson Tide. On Saturday, it might be a race to 100.
The market is still very confident in Flagg & Co.
- Kalshi says: 34%
Florida Gators
NCAA tournament results so far: Defeated No. 16 Norfolk State 95-69; defeated No. 8 UConn 77-75; defeated No. 4 Maryland 87-71
The No. 1 seed in the West nearly fell victim to the Uconn Huskies in the second round of the tournament, but they didn’t look back against Maryland, beating the Terrapins decisively 87-71.
On paper, they face their toughest test yet in the Elite against No. 3 seed Texas Tech (more on them shortly).
The Florida Gators are the second-best team, according to KenPom’s advanced metrics, which is reflected in current odds to cut down the net in San Antonio.
- Kalshi says: 24%
Auburn Tigers
NCAA tournament results so far: Defeated No. 16 Alabama State 83-63; defeated No. 9 Creighton 82-70; defeated No. 5 Michigan 78-65
Trailing 48-39 with 12 1/2 minutes left, Auburn rallied in the second half Friday against the Michigan Wolverines. The Tigers dominated the rest of the game, outscoring No. 5 seed Michigan 39-17 from that point on and punching their ticket to the Elite 8, in which they’ll play Michigan State on Sunday.
A couple of weeks ago, Auburn was the favorite to win it all, but their odds have adjusted to the reality of a tough road through the bracket.
- Kalshi says: 14%
Houston Cougars
NCAA tournament results so far: Defeated No. 16 SIU Edwardsville 78-40; defeated No. 8 Gonzaga 81-76; defeated No. 4 Purdue 62-60
With seconds left and tied 60-60 with Purdue, head coach Kelvin Sampson drew up the perfect inbounds play. Now they live another day. If they can reach the Final Four, they will have homecourt advantage of sorts, having only to travel a couple of hours north to San Antonio.
Of course, they must pass the Tennessee Volunteers first, which is no easy task.
- Kalshis says: 12%
Alabama Crimson Tide
NCAA tournament results so far: Defeated No. 15 Robert Morris 90-81; defeated No. 7 Saint Mary’s 80-66; defeated No. 6 BYU 113-88
Alabama’s offensive dominance, particularly in three-point shooting, has been a highlight of their tournament run. If they keep a hot hand against Duke, they can knock off the powerhouse, but if the shots stop falling, then so too will their title hopes.
- Kalshi says: 6%
Tennessee Volunteers
NCAA tournament results so far: Defeated No. 15 Wofford 77-62; defeated No. 7 UCLA 67-58; defeated No. 3 Kentucky 78-65
You might be noticing a trend…there’s A LOT of SEC teams still alive, including the Volunteers. Head coach Rick Barnes is looking for only his second Final Four appearance and his first since 2003, when he took the Texas Longhorns to New Orleans.
- Kalshi says: 6%
Michigan State Spartans
NCAA tournament results so far: Defeated No. 15 Bryant 87-62; defeated No. 10 New Mexico 71-63; defeated No. 6 Ole Miss 73-70.
Tom Izzo just doesn’t stop. He’s coached the Spartans for 30 years — that’s a long time to be in one place.
His squad came from behind on Friday, barely inching out a 73-70 victory over a tough Ole Miss team. Izzo cried in his post-game interview while talking about the resiliency of his team.
Michigan State will face its toughest test yet on Sunday when they clash with Bruce Pearl’s Auburn Tigers. While Izzo is no stranger to Final Fours, having made back-to-back appearances between 2019 and 2021 (the COVID season was canceled), the Hall of Famer is still hunting for a second national title, the first of which came 25 years ago.
- Kalshi says: 5%
Texas Tech Red Raiders
NCAA tournament results so far: Defeated No. 14 UNC Wilmington 82-72; defeated No. 11 Drake 77-64; defeated No. 10 Arkansas 85-85 OT
Texas Tech was picked to finish 7th in the Big 12. Fast forward to March, and they are one of eight teams still standing—fresh off arguably the most exciting game of the tournament.
The Red Raiders are led by Darrion Williams and Big 12 Player of the Year J.T. Toppin, but head coach Grant McCasland really hopes to have senior guard Chance McMillian back for the Elite 8 game against Florida. McMillian is the team’s best shooter and led the conference in three-point shooting. They will need all the help they can get to beat the Gators.
If successful, Texas Tech will head back to Texas for the Final Four, where they’ll feel right at home in San Antonio (even though it’s 8 hours away from Lubbock).
- Kalshi says: 4%
