From shadowy Pentagon footage to congressional hearings that sound like sci-fi, the question of whether we’re alone in the universe has never felt more present.
With classified documents slowly surfacing and former officials speaking out, speculation is soaring.
Could 2025 be the year the U.S. government finally confirms what many already suspect? Prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket think it’s unlikely, but not totally impossible.
So let’s break it down.
The Question That Won’t Die
Decades of speculation, sightings, and secrecy have kept the question alive: Are we alone? Now, the stakes are rising.
2023 Congressional Hearings
Lawmakers heard testimony from military insiders who claimed the government possesses “non-human biologics.” No hard proof, but no outright denial either.
Whistleblowers
Former intelligence officials and Air Force veterans have risked careers—and reputations—by speaking publicly about UAPs and crash retrieval programs.
Declassified Footage
The U.S. Navy confirmed multiple videos showing unexplained aerial phenomena, or UAPs, moving in ways no known aircraft can.
The New Reporting Office
The Department of Defense created the AARO (All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office) to track UAPs. Its mandate: transparency and investigation.
What ‘Confirmation’ Actually Means
Not little green men. Confirmation could range from microbial life to acknowledgment of technology not made on Earth. Definitions matter.
Political Pressure and Public Demand
Bipartisan demand for answers is growing. With voters curious and media hungry, silence is no longer a tenable position.
Why 2025?
Election cycles, agency funding renewals (depending on what DOGE does), and the pace of declassification all point to 2025 as a potential tipping point.
Market Odds and Speculation
Polymarket (7%) and Kalshi (8%) think it’s unlikely, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a chance.
If It Happens … Then What?
Disclosure changes everything: science, religion, politics, and security. The only question bigger than “Are they out there?” is “What happens when we say ‘Yes?’”
