After a stunning upset to tip off the 2025 NBA Finals, the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder bounced back on Sunday night to tie up the series against the Indian Pacers. The teams now head to Indianapolis, and on Wednesday will pick up where they left off.
According to Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market exchange, the Thunder have about an 82% chance to win the Larry O’Brien trophy. Those are pretty sizeable odds, coming out to roughly -455 in more traditional American odds, a notch down from where they opened at -700.
Speaking of odds, betting markets are usually pretty good at predicting champions — but not always. From aging squads to overlooked rosters, these 10 NBA Finals upsets left onlookers stunned. Ranked by pre-series betting odds, here are the biggest stunners in NBA Finals history.
If there was hope for these teams, then there’s certainly hope for the Pacers.
Heat over Mavericks (2006)
Miami entered the series as a +140 underdog and quickly fell behind 0–2 against the 60-win Mavericks. But Dwyane Wade erupted with 34.7 points per game and led the Heat to four straight wins — and their first championship — in one of the greatest individual Finals runs ever.
Blazers over 76ers (1977)
Philadelphia, led by Julius Erving, was a Finals favorite, while Portland was listed around +150. After falling behind 0–2, the Blazers stormed back to win four straight behind Bill Walton’s MVP performance. It was a stunning turnaround and remains the Blazers’ only championship to date.
Cavaliers vs. Warriors (2016)
Cleveland entered the series as a +175 to +190 underdog against a 73-win Warriors team coming off back-to-back Finals appearances. Down 3–1 in the series, the Cavaliers pulled off the unthinkable: winning three straight games, including Game 7 on the road. LeBron James delivered one of the greatest individual Finals performances ever — highlighted by the iconic chase-down block, Kyrie Irving’s clutch three, and the first NBA title in franchise history. While not a top-10 upset in terms of betting odds, it’s arguably the most emotionally resonant comeback the Finals has ever seen.
No. 7: Rockets over Magic (1995)
Despite being the defending champs, the Rockets were a +160 to +175 underdog as a 6-seed going up against young superstars Shaq and Penny. Instead of folding, Houston swept the 57-win Magic behind Hakeem Olajuwon’s dominance, completing one of the wildest playoff runs in league history.
No. 6: Mavericks over Heat (2011)
Dallas was a solid +155 to +180 underdog against the newly minted Miami Big Three. But behind Dirk Nowitzki’s brilliance and LeBron James’ stunning Finals struggles, the Mavs pulled off one of the most satisfying upsets in modern NBA history — winning 4–2 and flipping the Heat’s coronation script.
No. 5: Raptors over Warriors (2019)
Toronto opened the series as a +230 underdog against the defending champion Warriors, who were still seen as juggernauts despite Kevin Durant’s uncertain health. Injuries derailed Golden State, but Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors took full advantage, winning Canada’s first NBA title in six games.
Celtics over Lakers (1969)
Bill Russell’s final season was never supposed to end in a title. The Celtics were +400 to +500 underdogs against a Lakers team featuring Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry West, and Elgin Baylor. But Boston won a legendary Game 7 in LA, and Jerry West — from the losing team — walked away with Finals MVP.
Bullets over SuperSonics (1978)
Washington entered the playoffs as a modest 44-win 4-seed and was a +400 to +600 underdog heading into the Finals. Yet they outlasted Seattle in a gritty 7-game series, capped off by a road win in Game 7. The Bullets remain one of the lowest-seeded champions in NBA history.
Pistons over Lakers (2004)
The 2004 Lakers were one of the most heavily favored teams in Finals history — listed as high as -700 to win the series. Detroit? A +500 to +700 underdog with no superstar. But the Pistons smothered LA with lockdown defense and stunning teamwork, winning the series 4–1 and redefining what a “team” win looks like.
Warriors over Bullets (1975)
Golden State entered the Finals as a +1200 underdog against the 60-win Washington Bullets. The Warriors, led by Rick Barry, were expected to be swept — instead, they pulled off a shocking 4–0 sweep of their own. Though official Vegas odds weren’t widely tracked in 1975, most historical sources cite it as the biggest Finals betting upset ever.
