Donald Trump’s so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill” was supposed to be a flex — tax cuts, Medicaid changes, a debt ceiling hike, and the full MAGA wishlist crammed into one mega package.
But now? The bill’s hitting a wall — and that wall is made of Republicans.
That said, traders on both Kalshi and Polymarket are confident a budget reconciliation bill is likely to be passed — 84% by August 31 on Kalshi; 88% by July 31 on Polymarket.
So, from fiscal hawks to rural health care defenders, here’s the latest lineup of GOP senators ready to knife Trump’s legislative masterpiece.
Ron Johnson (WI)
Called the bill a “sad joke.” He’s furious over its $3-4 trillion price tag and wants pandemic-era spending rolled back hard. If it ain’t balanced, he ain’t biting.
Rand Paul (KY)
Says the bill’s spending cuts are “wimpy and anemic.” Like Johnson, he’s outraged about the $4 trillion debt ceiling bump and wants to slash deeper — or not vote at all.
Susan Collins (ME)
Worried the Medicaid cuts — $880 billion worth — would gut rural hospitals and hurt her state. She’s sounding alarms for vulnerable Americans.
Lisa Murkowski (AK)
Same boat as Collins. Alaska’s health care system is fragile, and Murkowski’s not about to back a bill that axes safety nets for her constituents.
Josh Hawley (MO)
Says working-class Americans would get crushed. He wants to expand the child tax credit, close loopholes, and maybe throw in a populist curveball or two.
Ted Cruz (TX)
Wants deeper cuts and more ideological purity. Cruz isn’t a fan of big bills — especially ones that come with baggage and red ink.
Rick Scott (FL)
Another fiscal hawk flapping his wings. Scott’s railing against the debt load and demanding tighter belts all around.
Mike Braun (IN)
Braun is all about budget discipline. He’s concerned the bill’s size and scope will explode the national debt. And it certainly could.
The Bigger Problem
This isn’t just a personnel issue — it’s structural. The bill ties together tax policy, Medicaid reforms, and a debt ceiling hike, making it a political land mine. Toss in the SALT deduction fight and a shaky 53—47 Senate majority, and suddenly, Trump’s “beautiful” bill starts looking a lot more fragile.
Not every Republican is ready to rubber-stamp a legacy project with a massive price tag.
