Every Fourth of July, Coney Island turns competitive eating into must-see TV—and now, a busy betting and predictio markets.
As of Thursday, July 3, more than $8 million as been traded on Kalshi’s hot dog contest markets.
With Joey Chestnut returning after last year’s absence, 2024 surprise winner Patrick Bertoletti trying to prove it wasn’t a fluke, and Miki Sudo chasing an eleventh women’s crown, the 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest offers familiar faces—the biggest question, however, is if anyone can beat Chestnut?
Below are the top contenders, plus a couple of other things to watch when the contestants take the stage on the Fourth of July.
Joey “Jaws” Chestnut
Sixteen-time champion and 2021 record-holder with 76 hot dogs and buns eaten (HDB). The most dominant athlete of all time settled last year’s sponsor dispute and enters as roughly a 90% favorite according to prediction markets. Some oddsmakers are setting his personal line at 71.5 dogs.
Patrick “Deep Dish” Bertoletti
With Chestnut on the sideline last year, Patrick Bertoletti stepped up to take the crown with 58 dogs in 2024’s contest. He’s a former chef who also owns wing and doughnut world records. He’s currently trading around a 6% chance. It’s doubtful he’ll defend his crown with Chestnut competing, but can he break his own personal record?
Geoffrey Esper
A math-teacher-turned-eater and runner-up with 53 HDB in 2024. He’s a holder of multiple food records, so knows how to push his limits and win competitive eating contests. Market probability near 6 %; total 51.5.
James Webb
Australia’s leading eater who placed third last year with 52 HDB. He’s the first Aussie with a real shot at the belt, and might actually be Chestnut’s biggest competition even if the.betting markets haven’t realized it.
Nick Wehry
Power-lifter and Miki Sudo’s husband, he logged a personal best 51.75 dogs in 2024. Unfortunately, beyond Webb, no one really has a shot at upsetting Chestnut.
Miki Sudo
Women’s GOAT with ten titles and the division record of 51 HDB (2024). A –2500 favorite implies ~96% win chance at sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel. Here individual line is set 44.5.
Michelle Lesco
2021 champion (30.75 HDB) and Tucson math teacher. Second choice behind Sudo at +1200 (~8 %). Needs 32+ to contend.
Domenica Dee
Rookie qualifier after a 23.5-dog win in Pleasanton. Listed near +1500 but trending up; she is likely aiming for 25+.
Over/Under Totals
Hot dog props: Chestnut 71.5, Bertoletti 52.5, Esper 50.5, Webb 50.5, Wehry 46.5, Sudo 44.5. Comment with your hot dog predictions!
Record Watch
Will Chestnut top his own 76-dog benchmark? “Yes” pays +250 (~29% implied). Cooler temps and a motivated Jaws give the record an outside shot, but bettors still favor “No” at –370.
