Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is not looking at an easy week.
He’s got a delicate balancing act to deal with — reassuring investors that the economy is stable while signaling that policymakers should be prepared to act if needed.
Despite his confidence in U.S. resilience, markets have been shaken by President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war, sending stocks downward over the past month. Bond yields have also fallen, and consumer sentiment has dipped as concerns about the economic outlook continue to grow. Prediction markets show a significant concern over the chance of a recession as well.
Here are 10 things Powell might say on Wednesday following the March FOMC meeting.
‘Good Afternoon’
I mean … yeah. Almost every figurehead in history starts off with a salutation of some sort, and this one is certainly Powell’s favorite.
Now, on to the spicy stuff…
‘Tariffs’
There’s no escaping the conversation around tariffs — both in terms of what Trump has threatened in the ongoing trade war as well as what other countries might retaliate with.
‘Trump’
The markets don’t seem to think that Powell will talk much about Trump. Not directly, at least.
‘Rates’
The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its March 18-19 meeting, according to Bloomberg News, but markets are betting on three rate cuts this year, likely starting in June. Economists, on the other hand, anticipate two cuts — aligning with what many expect the Fed’s updated projections to reflect on Wednesday.
‘Cut’
As for the cuts themselves, a lot of this depends on how investors react to Trump’s policies and whether or not those policies are projected to impact expectations for the future of American economics.
‘Inflation’
Your dollar never seems to get you as far as it used to. But, statistically, it’s really low. In February, we were at about 2.8%. The previous year had us at 3.2%. Jumping back a little bit, it was a chunky 7.9% in 2022.
‘Growth’
To borrow a phrase from playing video games, everyone wants to see the numbers go up. And forecasters are looking at a 2.5% GDP increase over last year.
‘Unemployment’
If you haven’t seen John Carpenter’s THE LIVE, you should. It starts with vagabond “Rowdy” Roddy Piper — a Canadian import, one should note — looking for a job and … let’s just say things don’t end very well after he hits the unemployment line.
Unemployment rates are down to 4.1%.
‘Crypto’
Cryptocurrencies — digital currency using encryption for security and decentralized control; ie non-fiat — are a bit of a spicy meatball when it comes to Powell. He has said they’ll “take a fresh look at that.” Which is certainly pertinent since Trump wants a crypto reserve.
‘Egg’
Egg prices spiked during Trump’s first month in the Oval Office, but brunch is back on the menu as prices have plunged to a five-month low in March—which Powell might find noteworthy.
