If President Donald Trump adheres to the 22nd Amendment and does not pursue a third term in 2028 — he’s suggested there are ways he could, but Kalshi puts him at 8% — the Republican presidential field is expected to be highly competitive.
Several prominent Republicans are positioning themselves as potential candidates.
Here are 10 as well as the chances they’ll be the nominee.
JD Vance
Currently serving as Vice President and RNC finance chair, Vance is widely regarded as the frontrunner for the 2028 GOP nomination. His close alignment with Trump’s policies and control over party fundraising have bolstered his position.
Kalshi says: 42%
Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard is a former Democrat from Hawaii — she switched sides in 2022 — military veteran and current director of national intelligence.
Kalshi says: 10%
Marco Rubio
Serving as Secretary of State since 2025, Marco Rubio has remained active in foreign policy. Recent polls show him roughly tied with DeSantis.
Kalshi says: 7%
Donald Trump Jr.
Trump’s son Donald Jr. has maintained a steady presence in the limelight since his father first won the presidency and returned for a second administration.
Kalshi says: 6%
Ron DeSantis
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, once seen as a strong contender, faces challenges in regaining support after a contentious 2024 primary against Trump. Recent polls show him with 6% backing among Republicans.
Kalshi says: 5%
Glenn Youngkin
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, with his business background and focus on education, is a potential candidate.
Kalshi says: 5%
Vivek Ramaswamy
Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, after a 2024 presidential run, is now focusing on the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial race. He’s a long-shot.
Kalshi says: 4%
Nikki Haley
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley maintains a national profile and appeals to traditional conservatives. It could be an uphill battle in a party increasingly dominated by Trump’s influence.
Kalshi says: 3%
Brian Kemp
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, known for his firm stance during the 2020 election, has not ruled out a 2028 run. While he hasn’t declared his intentions, his leadership in a key swing state keeps him in the conversation.
Kalshi says: 2%
Ted Cruz
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, runner-up in the 2016 primaries, continues to be a vocal conservative voice. He has not declared his intentions for 2028 but remains a potential contender.
Kalshi says: 1%
