Tesla deliveries are not expected to be, if you’ll forgive a bad pun, electric. As such, trending estimates aren’t much of a shock (I’m not even remotely sorry about that pun).
That doesn’t mean it’s a total blackout (I’m not sorry for that pun, either).
Even as analysts continue to lower their projections for Tesla’s vehicle deliveries, investors are returning after President Trump offered up a strong defense of the company amid mounting criticism of CEO Elon Musk.
However, on Wall Street, Guggenheim cut its Tesla estimates and predicts Q1 deliveries of 358,000 — down from an earlier forecast of 405,000 — and well below the current consensus of 420,000. For comparison, Tesla reported 495,570 deliveries in Q4 of 2024 and 462,890 in Q3 of the same year.
POTUS buys a Tesla
There’s also speculation that Trump’s full-throated endorsement of a Musk enterprise could actually hurt it.
As The Associated Press reported: “Tesla is becoming a political symbol of Trump and DOGE, and that is a bad thing for the brand,” said Wedbush Securities financial analyst Dan Ives, referring to the advisory group in charge of cutting government spending led by Musk.
“You think it’s helping, but it’s actually hurting.”
Tesla’s stock climbed at Tuesday’s opening after Trump took to his Truth Social platform overnight and praised Musk for “putting it on the line” for the country.
In his post, Trump alleged that “Radical Left Lunatics” were working together to “illegally and collusively boycott Tesla, one of the world’s great automakers, and Elon’s ‘baby.’”
Tesla’s stock continued to rise after Trump showed off a Model S.
Tesla’s stock rebounded nearly 4% on Tuesday after suffering one of its worst single-day sell-offs the day before.
Tesla's struggles
The company has struggled this year amid intensifying competition from Chinese EV makers.
Industry analysts also highlight Musk’s ties to Trump and far-right movements as a growing liability. Tesla showrooms in the U.S. have faced protests, and its vehicles have been vandalized. Some owners have even added bumper stickers reading, “I bought it before Elon went nuts.”
Tesla shares have plunged 45% in 2025, dropping over 15% on Monday to $222.15 — the lowest since October — as global sales decline.
Musk pumped $270 million into Trump’s 2024 campaign, shared a stage with him, and celebrated his victory over Kamala Harris. Tesla’s stock hit $479 per share by mid-December, but has since fallen to around $230.
Current prediction market forecasts put Tesla deliveries at around 350,000.
