One of President Donald Trump’s big election platforms revolved around deporting illegal migrants.
Now, the term itself is a little confusing. What is a migrant?
There’s no single, universally agreed-upon definition of a migrant, but generally, it refers to people who move from one place to another — often in search of work or better living conditions.
Beyond employment, people migrate for all sorts of reasons: education, family reunification, escaping famine or climate change, and more. Unlike refugees, who flee due to direct threats of persecution or death, migrants move in pursuit of a better life.
Migration can be internal (within the same country) or international (across borders). Some migrants plan to return home eventually, while others seek a permanent new start. Right now, more than 281 million people — about 3.6% of the world’s population — are international migrants.
That’s no small shake.
There are also classifications for immigrants and emigrants (hey don’t blame me, I didn’t make up the english language).
According to Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, ICE conducted 308 arrests across the country.
Prediction markets like Kalshi forecast at around 400,000 deportations by the year’s end.
Deportation forecasts fall
But here’s the rub.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deported fewer people in February than it did during the same month last year under Biden, according to ICE data obtained by NBC News.
Last month, ICE deported about 11,000 migrants — the first full month of Trump’s presidency—compared to just over 12,000 in February 2024. The higher numbers under Biden were largely due to greater migration traffic at the border last year.
Most deportations under Biden in February 2024 involved migrants first arrested by Customs and Border Protection (CBP), meaning they were caught at or near the border. It’s easier to deport people detained at the border than those who have already settled in the U.S.
When looking only at immigrants first arrested by ICE — rather than those caught at the border—deportations actually increased under Trump. Nearly 4,300 such deportations occurred in February, compared to around 2,100 the previous year.
The data provides an early look at whether Trump is delivering on his immigration crackdown, a key promise of his second term. In his inaugural address, he vowed to deport “millions and millions of criminal aliens.”
Trump’s immigration team, led by border czar Tom Homan, has emphasized a “worst first” approach—prioritizing the removal of those with criminal records or suspected national security threats. Last year, ICE identified 435,000 undocumented immigrants with criminal convictions who were not in custody, but officials haven’t disclosed how many have been arrested or deported since Trump took office.
In February, about half of those deported had no criminal convictions or pending charges. ICE’s arrests and deportations of non-criminal immigrants rose slightly, from 223 in December to 390 last month.
While overall deportation numbers are down compared to Biden, Trump’s policies have made a significant impact elsewhere.
Border crossings have dropped to the lowest levels in 25 years. A major factor is the Trump administration’s decision to shut down the CBP One program, which previously allowed migrants to book asylum appointments through a mobile app. Now, migrants are being turned away at the border even at legal ports of entry — a policy that immigration advocacy groups are challenging in court.
