Congress doesn’t have much time to figure out how to prevent a government shutdown.
It has only got until 11:59 Friday, as a matter of fact. That means hundreds of thousands of federal workers might be furloughed or required to work without pay.
The TL’DR of this is: A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to approve funding, either temporarily or long-term, and the president doesn’t sign a measure to keep operations running.
According to Kalshi—a federally regulated prediction market where users predict future events—there’s roughly a 17% chance that the government shuts down by March 19. The odds of a shutdown any time this year are closer to 50/50.
Here’s what could be impacted.
Every agency has its own rules when it comes to a shutdown
Non-essential government operations come to a halt during a shutdown, disrupting work for hundreds of thousands of federal employees.
Some workers are furloughed, keeping their jobs but staying home unpaid until the government reopens. Others must continue working without pay, with back pay expected later.
Rules on who works and who doesn’t stem from the 1980s, when Reagan’s budget chief, David Stockman, set guidelines exempting jobs tied to national security or essential public safety. Agencies like the FBI, Border Patrol, and Coast Guard stay open, as do TSA airport checkpoints.
The U.S. Postal Service remains unaffected since it operates independently.
Say goodbye (temporarily) to national parks
National parks and monuments would shut down, and while troops remain on duty, many civilian Defense Department employees would be sent home.
The court system would also feel the impact, with civil cases put on hold while criminal prosecutions move forward.
Automated tax collection would continue, but IRS audits would be suspended.
Is your Social Security impacted?
Nope. Social Security and Medicare benefits would still be distributed since they fall under mandatory spending, unaffected by annual budget approvals. Doctors and hospitals would also keep receiving Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements.
However, new applications might face delays (there’s literally no way to know).
During the 1996 government shutdown, thousands of Medicare applicants were turned away each day. So keep your head up
What the heck even is a CR — continuing resolution
Congress, in a pinch, has a habit of passing CRs, otherwise known as a continuing resolution. It’s a short-term funding measure that keeps the federal government running while Congress and the president work on a longer-term budget.
Has the government been shut down before?
That’s gonna be a big yes.
The most recent was under Donald Trump’s previous presidency, when he wanted funding for a wall between the U.S. and Mexico border.
most recently six years ago, when Trump demanded funding for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. That shutdown was the longest in U.S. history, lasting 35 days.
Of course, despite it all, America remains.
