Kamala Harris’ odds of winning the US presidential election have increased since she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination, according to prediction markets, as trading volume on her candidacy has grown ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
PredictIt trading volume increased from 51,900 to 138,900 from Aug. 17 to Aug. 18. On Polymarket, money has moved on “Yes” to Harris winning the popular vote. She moved from a 71% chance on Aug. 17 to a 73% chance on Aug. 19.
Traders seem to be anticipating a further rise in Harris’ poll numbers after the convention. The convention will be the first chance Harris has to move past the “vibes” that she’s used to run her campaign so far. She has created a feel-good image to contrast the fear-based campaign Trump has run on
Democratic National Convention Plans
The DNC will begin its first night by having Biden tie up his presidency’s message, then pass the torch to Harris. Jill and Joe Biden will end the day, but previous candidates will begin it. Hillary Clinton will speak on Monday, too.
Tuesday will feature Barack Obama and Doug Emhoff to begin the transition to Harris’ forward-looking vision for the United States. She’ll speak on Thursday to accept the nomination and hopefully expound on concrete policy ideas.
Trump’s next event is on Aug. 21, where he and J.D. Vance will speak in Asheboro, North Carolina. In 2020, Trump only won North Carolina by 1.4%. It’s a crucial state for Republicans to win if they want to retake the White House.
The Trump campaign also hasn’t figured out how to attack the Harris campaign. He’s tried attacks that invoke her race and sex. He’s also tried to paint her as more radical than Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, false accusations that ring hollow. The DNC could give Trump a new idea for an attack angle, which could give him the ideas he needs to close the growing gap between him and Harris in national and swing state polls.
