Traders at Polymarket are placing bets on what Trump will say on Wednesday – ‘Tariff’ and ‘China’ are frontrunners.
After months of teasing new trade penalties — sometimes sounding more like threats than policy — President Donald Trump is set to make it official. His April 2 press conference, which he has dubbed “Liberation Day,” is expected to include sweeping new tariffs and the removal of exemptions for some close U.S. allies.
Traders on platforms like Polymarket aren’t just betting on whether Trump will bring the heat during his highly-anticipated tariff announcement — they’re wagering on exactly which words he’ll repeat, and how many times.
Mention markets are now available for trading across top prediction market sites, where traders can hedge any downside risk, including by betting on what the president will say during Wednesday’s speech.
Buzz words
The Trump mention markets, which opened in the days leading up to his announcement, have already pulled in over $364,000 in volume.
At time of writing, with around 24 hours left to trade, the current frontrunners for most likely to cash in include “China” (3+ times) at 78%, “India” at 76% and “Tariff” (15+ times) at 75%. “Billion” (10+ times) sits at 60%, riding on Trump’s familiar flair for headline-grabbing numbers.
These language bets aren’t happening in a vacuum. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 35%, up from 20%, citing trade policy uncertainty as one of the drivers. And Barclays chief U.S. economist Matt Gianonni told CNBC this week that while the market had priced in tariff risks after Trump’s primary wins, “We underestimated just how far the tariff agenda would go.”
Amid the uncertainty, Trump is expected to deliver his remarks with characteristic confidence — and plenty of quotable lines.
Phrases like “Fantastic job” (62%), “MAGA” (49%), and “Made in America” (2+ times at 54%) are drawing action from traders betting on Trump’s classic rhetorical greatest hits.
His official schedule, including timing for the April 2 event, is expected to be released via Roll Call here closer to speech time.
Top market predictions: What Trump might say and why
‘Tariff’ 15+ times (75%)
- Why it’s likely: This is the heart of the event. Trump is set to unveil a sweeping new round of tariffs, and he’s never been shy about repeating the term. Past speeches on trade and manufacturing have seen “tariff” peppered in at nearly every turn.
- Market analysis: Very likely. Traders see this as all but guaranteed, and it’s currently among the highest-probability terms in the market.
‘China’ 3+ times (78%)
- Why it’s likely: Trump’s trade war with China was a defining feature of his presidency. With new penalties potentially targeting Chinese imports, expect “China” to appear multiple times.
- Market analysis: Rising. Tensions are high again, and “China” remains the central character in Trump’s tariff narrative.
Billion’ 10+ times (60%)
- Why it’s likely: Trump loves big numbers — and saying them big. From jobs saved to tariffs collected, “billion” is a favorite way to dramatize scale.
- Market analysis: Likely. With sweeping new penalties expected, Trump will almost certainly tout the billions involved.
‘Percent’ 10+ times (64%)
- Why it’s likely: Tariffs are defined by percentages, and Trump often doubles down on the number—“25 percent,” “100 percent,” and beyond.
- Market analysis: Steady. This could climb quickly if Trump dives deep into the specifics.
‘Made in America’ 2+ times (54%)
- Why it’s likely: A go-to slogan on trade and manufacturing. Trump’s messaging often hinges on the idea of returning production to U.S. soil.
- Market analysis: Could rise. If the speech leans patriotic, this phrase is almost a certainty.
‘India’ (75%)
- Why it’s likely: India has increasingly appeared in Trump’s trade speeches. New tariffs or exceptions could involve Indian goods.
- Market analysis: Trending up. India is rising in strategic trade importance and may be name-checked in contrast to China.
‘Japan’ (62%)
- Why it’s likely: Japan is often looped into discussions on auto tariffs and trade deficits.
- Market analysis: Stable and strong. A mention is more than likely if auto imports are discussed. Of all these mention markets, ‘Japan’ has the highest trading volume at over $155,000 so far.
‘Fantastic job’ (62%)
- Why it’s likely: A classic Trumpism. Often used to pat his team — or himself — on the back.
- Market analysis: Strong. High odds for at least one “fantastic” flourish.
‘Deficit’ (61%)
- Why it’s likely: Reducing the trade deficit is one of Trump’s most repeated justifications for tariffs.
- Market analysis: Likely and rising. If he makes a data-heavy case, expect this term to surface.
‘Farmer’ (62%)
- Why it’s likely: Farmers have been among the most vocal groups affected by tariffs. Trump has often framed tariffs as protecting rural America.
- Market analysis: Rising. If agriculture exemptions are on the table, “farmer” is a strong likelihood.
Wildcard Terms: ‘Crypto,’ ‘AI,’ and ‘MAGA’
Some terms may show up, but they’re long shots:
- ‘Crypto / Bitcoin’ (6%) – Despite its buzz online, Trump rarely mentions it unless pressed.
- ‘AI / Artificial Intelligence’ (26%) – More common in tech events; unlikely to feature prominently, but rising in ‘Yes’ trades.
- ‘MAGA / Make America Great Again’ (49%) – A campaign staple, not always present in economic briefings but a solid mid-range bet.
As always, the real wildcard is Trump himself. If the speech goes off-script — as it often does — expect a few curveballs. But one thing’s for sure: some traders will be betting on every single word.
