On Jan. 5, 2024, Senate Majority Leader John Thune quietly passed Trump a crucial message: Thune has the votes to confirm Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense.
Hegseth’s nomination caught mainstream journalists and prediction markets by surprise. At first, Rep. Mike Waltz, Gov. Ron DeSantis, and Sen. Tom Cotton were among the favorites to receive the appointment. Hegseth has military experience, but senators worried he lacked the administrative experience to run the federal government’s largest agency.
Now that Hegseth has fought through his various scandals, he seems as likely to be confirmed as when Trump first nominated him. His Kalshi prediction market odds opened at 84% on Nov. 13, then fell to 8% by Dec. 4. After courting senators, his odds climbed back up to 86% on Jan. 6.
It may seem surprising that Hegseth’s odds aren’t in the 90s if Thune, in fac,t has the votes. However, Hegseth still must undergo the FBI background check and his confirmation hearing on Jan. 14. If Hegseth withdraws from the process, Hegseth nomination markets on prediction market platforms will resolve to ‘NO’.
Scandals and flakey senators
Investigations into Hegseth’s background uncovered scandals concerning his heavy drinking, financial mismanagement, and treatment of women.
In 2016, when he was president of Concerned Veterans for America (CVA), he was not only drunk at work but also used non-profit funds to pay his personal expenses.
Some of the most incendiary scandals were sexual assault allegations. Not only was Hegseth accused of groping multiple women. He was also accused of sexually assaulting a woman at a conference in 2017. Hegseth paid to settle the lawsuit, and police never filed criminal charges.
As these scandals piled up, Republican senators questioned Hegseth’s nomination. Sen. Joni Ernst, a combat veteran and sexual assault survivor, was one of those senators. However, after meeting with Hegseth and receiving his pledge to confront sexual violence in the military, Ernst endorsed Hegseth. That left only senators like Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins as toss-up votes.
Murkowski and Collins were among the most willing Republican senators to vote against Trump’s wishes during his first term. Collins voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment for inciting the Jan. 6 riot. Murkowski voted against bringing Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination to a full Senate vote. (She voted “present” during the confirmation vote.)
Narrow margin a good sign for other nominees

The prediction market platform PredictIt gives Hegseth a high chance of being confirmed by a narrow margin:
- 49 or fewer votes – 17%
- 50 votes – 24%
- 51 votes – 26%
- 52 votes – 21%
- 53 votes – 10%
- 54 votes – 4%
When his confirmation odds were at their lowest, Hegseth traveled to Capitol Hill to court senators. He won over Sen. Ernst and met with other key senators.
Hegseth wasn’t the only Cabinet pick who faced resistance from the senators. Tulsi Gabbard and Robert Kennedy Jr. were controversial nominees, too. Their odds have reached the 80s.
Following Matt Gaetz’s withdrawal from the Attorney General nomination, Trump is reportedly determined not to lose another nominee. According to current prediction market prices, the president-elect has little to worry about.