President-elect Trump wants Greenland to be the 51st state, but prediction markets think Trump’s latest real-estate bid is doomed.
As of Jan. 14, the prediction market platform Kalshi gives Trump a 26% chance of buying at least part of Greenland by the end of his term, while Manifold forecasts only an 18% chance. Then there’s Polymarket, which pegs the odds of acquiring all of Greenland by July at 7%.
Previous administrations have tried to buy Greenland, as President Andrew Johnson first did in 1868. However, Trump’s interest is more sudden and wasn’t obviously tied to his campaign or worldview until late 2024. Political analysts are split about how seriously to take Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland through “economic coercion.” However, he’s doubled down on the idea enough that Greenland and European allies are taking him seriously.
Interests in Greenland
Greenland’s Interests: Although Greenland remains part of Denmark, it gained the right to vote for full independence in 2009. As part of its ongoing move toward self-governance, Greenland drafted its first constitution in 2023. Many local leaders, recognizing the island’s rich mineral resources and strategic shipping lanes, are focused on strengthening Greenland’s autonomy rather than submitting to a more powerful government.
America’s Interest in Greenland: American interest in Greenland goes back to the early 1800s when the United States was still worried about Europeans encroaching on American territory. President Andrew Johnson’s secretary of state tried to buy both Greenland and Iceland. A century later, William Howard Taft’s ambassador to Greenland discussed its sale to the United States.
Trump’s Interest in Greenland: Trump’s interest in Greenland goes back to 2019. According to Nunatsiaq News, Trump considered trading Puerto Rico for Greenland near the end of his first term. Today, Trump cites concerns about Chinese and Russian interests in the Arctic Circle. Greenland’s melting ice is revealing new shipping routes and mineral deposits. The same resources that could help Greenland’s pursuit of independence make it an attractive strategic target for Trump.
As ice melts, tension rises
When Trump announced his choice for a new U.S. ambassador to Greenland on Dec. 22, he underscored the importance of American involvement in the Arctic. “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World,” he said, “the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”d
In his Jan. 7 press conference, Trump refused to rule out “military or economic coercion” to convince Greenland to become the 51st U.S. state. It’s unclear whether Trump would invade Greenland or sanction it into submission. The last decade of Greenland’s policy has marched toward independence from Denmark, not subordination to what one researcher called a new “colonial master.”
Greenland is the center of an increasingly important sphere of influence: the Arctic. As the polar ice continues to melt, new shipping routes are opening, including the Northern Sea Route, traditionally under Russia’s control. But as the thaw opens more navigable waters, other nations such as China and Canada are asserting claims, intensifying competition over these increasingly valuable maritime corridors.
Melting ice is exposing new sources of oil, natural gas, and by one estimate, $1 trillion of precious metals and minerals. Global energy firms are closely monitoring Greenland to see whether they can get a piece of these emerging resources. Meanwhile, Greenlandic leaders are seeking ways to leverage access to those resources to build an independent nation.
Regardless of Trump’s sincerity about absorbing Greenland, the consensus—reflected in current prediction market prices and geopolitical realities—indicates that the chances of it becoming the 51st state remain slim.
