What to know:
- Defense secretary nominee Pete Hegseth is among the president-elect’s most controversial picks, putting his confirmation in doubt
- Prediction markets allow bets on Cabinet confirmations, including how many votes nominees will receive and how specific senators will vote
- Republican senators Murkowski, Collins, Curtis, and McConnell are key votes to watch (and bet on)
Traders on top prediction market platforms are betting on the future of one of Trump’s most controversial Cabinet picks.
Pete Hegseth is a former Fox News Weekend host whose combat experience, some senators fear, did not sufficiently prepare him to become the secretary of defense. Concerns about Hegseth’s preparation to run the Pentagon preceded scandals concerning Hegseth’s heavy drinking, financial mismanagement, and sexual assault allegations.
Despite the controversies, Republican senators have rallied behind Trump’s surprising pick. Kalshi’s market on the number of senators who will confirm Hegseth projects 51 votes for Hegseth– the bare minimum number of senators needed to elevate him to the secretary of defense position before Inauguration Day. After J.D. Vance is seated as the vice president, he can cast a tie-breaking vote that only requires 50 senators to get on board.
If all 47 Democratic senators vote against Hegseth, then Republicans must close ranks to confirm Trump’s nominees. Four Republican senators, in particular, are going to be among the most consequential in deciding Hegseth’s fate: Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, John Curtis, and Mitch McConnell.
Will these senators confirm Hegseth?
You can view the current prediction market forecasts related to Hegseth’s confirmation, courtesy of the prediction market Kalshi, below.
Mitch McConnell
- YES – 63¢ (-170)
- NO – 45¢ (+122)
We’ll take each of the nominees as they come, and they’ll go through the vetting process.
Mitch McConnell is the most tight-lipped senator when it comes to Hegseth and Trump’s other nominees. McConnell has honed strategic silence over decades in the Senate, 17 years as his party’s Senate leader, and six years as Senate majority leader. His votes are more revealing than his words.
For example, McConnell blamed Trump for the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. McConnell said that Trump was “practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of that day.” Then McConnell voted against impeaching Trump for his role in inciting the riot.
McConnell’s goal has always been to instill his conservative vision of government, regardless of how unpopular it made him. Under his leadership, Republican senators united to block Obama’s judicial nominees but quickly confirmed Trump’s.
McConnell may have the independence to vote against Hegseth. However, McConnell’s career has been built on supporting strong Republican governments and instilling his brand of conservatism into federal courts. Given his history of putting his party above personal preferences, McConnell is the least uncertain of the “uncertain” senators.
Lisa Murkowski
- YES – 20¢ (+500)
- NO – 89¢ (-809)
I had a good exchange [with Hegseth] and let’s see what the process bears.
Lisa Murkowski is one of the most independent Republicans in the Senate. Donald Trump won Alaska by about 13 points, so on the surface, Alaska is a safely Republican state.
However, about 58% of Alaska voters approved a ballot measure raising the state’s minimum wage and requiring sick leave. Alaska demands an independent touch that may push back against Trump and even, until recently, Mitch McConnell. For example, Murkowski voted against bringing Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court to a final vote.
Murkowski is one of the most likely senators to buck her party and vote the way other senators secretly feel. She met with Hegseth on Dec. 10 and said she had a “good exchange” with him. However, she didn’t come out and say which way she planned to vote. Murkowski is keeping her comments brief to leave room for reactions to the confirmation hearings and FBI background check.
Sen. Murkowski says she had “a good exchange” with Pete Hegseth.
— Cristina Corujo (@cristina_corujo) December 10, 2024
When asked if she would support him she said again “I had a good exchange and let’s see what the process bears.” pic.twitter.com/qOzDXhyTHD
Susan Collins
- YES – 25¢ (+400)
- NO – 84¢ (-525)
I obviously always wait until we have an FBI background check and there is one underway in the case of Mr. Hegseth, and I’ll wait to see the committee hearing before reaching a final decision.
Susan Collins is another independent-minded Republican senator. She represents Maine, a largely blue state. Angus King, Maine’s other senator and a registered Independent, caucuses with the Democratic Party. Kamala Harris also won all four of Maine’s Electoral College votes. Maine’s politics demand a moderate approach from any Republican who wants to remain in office.
Collins was one of seven Republican senators to vote to convict in Trump’s impeachment following his inaction during the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. She’s up for re-election in 2026 and has declared that she will run for another term.
She has some of the most leeway to vote against a Trump Cabinet nominee. Collins’ Dec. 11 meeting with Hegseth seemed to assuage some of her concerns. She had a “good, substantive discussion” with Hegseth, but has left plenty of wiggle room for herself too.
.@SenatorCollins after her meeting with Hegseth: “I obviously always wait until we have an FBI background check and there is one underway in the case of Mr. Hegseth and I’ll wait to see the committee hearing before reaching a final decision.” pic.twitter.com/JkVCQXHfTN
— Samantha-Jo Roth (@SamanthaJoRoth) December 11, 2024
John Curtis
- YES – 51¢ (-104)
- NO – 50¢ (+100)
I think everybody's got concerns about with what's in the news, but I think he deserves a chance to respond.
John Curtis is the incoming senator from Utah. He replaced Mitt Romney, one of the most prominent Trump critics from the Republican Party.
Curtis was a former House member, and his record doesn’t seem anti-Trump to begin with. He voted against both of Trump’s impeachments, but he also criticized the president-elect after January 6.
Curtis could use Hegseth as his vote to draw a red line for himself. A “no” vote on Hegseth could allow Curtis to cast himself as a principled independent voice without having to oppose Trump’s other nominees.
However, Curtis could also bend to the pressure that Trump and other senators can put on dissenting candidates. His track record makes his approach to controversial Cabinet nominees unclear. Curtis is set to meet with Hegseth this week and said it “is going to be a very interesting meeting.” Curtis believes he is in the Senate to “help him [the president] pick the best people” and “if there’s anything he missed in his process, we want to pick it up.”
Curtis already played a key role in killing Matt Gaetz’s nomination for Attorney General. Hegseth’s scandals could make him Curtis’ next target.
I appreciated the opportunity to meet with @PeteHegseth, nominee for Secretary of Defense, and discuss his vision for leading the Department of Defense. As the Senate confirmation process continues, I will be closely monitoring his nomination. I remain committed to the Senate’s… pic.twitter.com/L2vXKhVnYm
— John Curtis (@CurtisUT) December 17, 2024
What about Joni Ernst?
Pete committed to completing a full audit of the Pentagon and selecting a senior official who will uphold the roles and value of our servicemen and women and who will prioritize and strengthen my work to prevent sexual assault within the ranks.
Joni Ernst’s initial hesitance to support Hegseth seemed to doom his nomination. She’s a high-ranking member of the Armed Services Committee and a seemingly safe Republican senator from Iowa.
However, she signaled an openness to Hegseth after meeting with him. She raised his sexual assault allegations and asked him to pledge to hire a “senior official” to address sexual violence in the military. With Hegseth’s pledge to do something important to her, Senator Ernst seems a likely “yes” vote after Hegseth’s confirmation hearings.
.@hegseth emerges from a second meeting with Sen. Ernst calling it a “very good meeting.” He said he’s known her for 10 years, “the more we talk, the more we are reminded that we are two combat veterans and we are dedicated to defense.” pic.twitter.com/xkEoKdoiCH
— Samantha-Jo Roth (@SamanthaJoRoth) December 9, 2024
With three senators up for grabs, Hegseth’s path to confirmation is narrow. But with Trump’s backing and the headway Hegseth made in his meetings with key senators, his confirmation remains likely.
Secretary of defense predictions
- Vote count: 51
- Best bet: 50 to 52 votes (49¢ on Kalshi)
When the next Congress is sworn in, Republicans will have a 53-47 majority. Two of those senators, J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, will resign from the Senate to take their places in Trump’s administration on Inauguration Day (Jan. 20). J.D. Vance can’t break a Senate tie until he’s sworn in as vice president.
However, Hegseth is expected to get at least 51 votes. Historically, most of the Republican Senate has fallen into line. Murkowski and Collins were the two Republicans who were most likely to vote against Trump’s wishes in his first term, so they’re toss-ups. Murkowski voted against cloture before the official vote and agreed to vote ‘present’ to avoid voting in favor of Kavanaugh. Collins voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment.
But McConnell enabled Trump during his first term by securing controversial nominees to other positions. Republicans confirmed Kavanaugh despite the sexual assault allegations his confirmation hearings revealed. He’s a likely yes.
Curtis is untested in the pressures of the Senate. He could use Hegseth to cast himself as an independent voice, but Trump’s pressure on senators can be powerful. MAGA candidates already have a PAC for Senate races that rivals McConnell’s PAC supporting Republican candidates who can survive in general elections.
With Collins and Murkowski voting against, Hegseth may very well make it through his nomination with 51 Republican senators.
Here’s a detailed table outlining my current predictions for how each senator is likely to vote. Use it as a handy reference if you’re betting on the number of senators who will vote to confirm Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense.
| SENATOR | STATE | PARTY | LIKELY VOTE |
| Ruben Gallego | Arizona | Democrat | No |
| Mark Kelly | Arizona | Democrat | No |
| Adam Schiff | California | Democrat | No |
| Alex Padilla | California | Democrat | No |
| John Hickenlooper | Colorado | Democrat | No |
| Michael Bennet | Colorado | Democrat | No |
| Chris Murphy | Connecticut | Democrat | No |
| Richard Blumenthal | Connecticut | Democrat | No |
| Lisa Blunt Rochester | Delaware | Democrat | No |
| Chris Coons | Delaware | Democrat | No |
| Jon Ossoff | Georgia | Democrat | No |
| Raphael Warnock | Georgia | Democrat | No |
| Mazie Hirono | Hawaii | Democrat | No |
| Brian Schatz | Hawaii | Democrat | No |
| Dick Durbin | Illinois | Democrat | No |
| Tammy Duckworth | Illinois | Democrat | No |
| Angela Alsobrooks | Maryland | Democrat | No |
| Chris Van Hollen | Maryland | Democrat | No |
| Elizabeth Warren | Massachusetts | Democrat | No |
| Ed Markey | Massachusetts | Democrat | No |
| Debbie Stabenow | Michigan | Democrat | No |
| Gary Peters | Michigan | Democrat | No |
| Amy Klobuchar | Minnesota | Democrat | No |
| Tina Smith | Minnesota | Democrat | No |
| Jacky Rosen | Nevada | Democrat | No |
| Catherine Cortez Masto | Nevada | Democrat | No |
| Jeanne Shaheen | New Hampshire | Democrat | No |
| Maggie Hassan | New Hampshire | Democrat | No |
| Bob Menendez | New Jersey | Democrat | No |
| Cory Booker | New Jersey | Democrat | No |
| Martin Heinrich | New Mexico | Democrat | No |
| Ben Ray Luján | New Mexico | Democrat | No |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | New York | Democrat | No |
| Chuck Schumer | New York | Democrat | No |
| Jeff Merkley | Oregon | Democrat | No |
| Ron Wyden | Oregon | Democrat | No |
| John Fetterman | Pennsylvania | Democrat | No |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Rhode Island | Democrat | No |
| Jack Reed | Rhode Island | Democrat | No |
| Peter Welch | Vermont | Democrat | No |
| Tim Kaine | Virginia | Democrat | No |
| Mark Warner | Virginia | Democrat | No |
| Maria Cantwell | Washington | Democrat | No |
| Patty Murray | Washington | Democrat | No |
| Tammy Baldwin | Wisconsin | Democrat | No |
| Angus King | Maine | Independent* | No |
| Bernie Sanders | Vermont | Independent* | No |
| Tommy Tuberville | Alabama | Republican | YES |
| Katie Britt | Alabama | Republican | YES |
| Dan Sullivan | Alaska | Republican | YES |
| Lisa Murkowski | Alaska | Republican | Toss-Up |
| Tom Cotton | Arkansas | Republican | YES |
| John Boozman | Arkansas | Republican | YES |
| Rick Scott | Florida | Republican | YES |
| Marco Rubio | Florida | Republican | YES |
| Jim Risch | Idaho | Republican | YES |
| Mike Crapo | Idaho | Republican | YES |
| Jim Banks | Indiana | Republican | YES |
| Todd Young | Indiana | Republican | YES |
| Joni Ernst | Iowa | Republican | YES |
| Chuck Grassley | Iowa | Republican | YES |
| Roger Marshall | Kansas | Republican | YES |
| Jerry Moran | Kansas | Republican | YES |
| Mitch McConnell | Kentucky | Republican | YES |
| Rand Paul | Kentucky | Republican | YES |
| Bill Cassidy | Louisiana | Republican | YES |
| John Kennedy | Louisiana | Republican | YES |
| Susan Collins | Maine | Republican | Toss-Up |
| Roger Wicker | Mississippi | Republican | YES |
| Cindy Hyde-Smith | Mississippi | Republican | YES |
| Josh Hawley | Missouri | Republican | YES |
| Eric Schmitt | Missouri | Republican | YES |
| Tim Sheehy | Montana | Republican | YES |
| Steve Daines | Montana | Republican | YES |
| Deb Fischer | Nebraska | Republican | YES |
| Pete Ricketts | Nebraska | Republican | YES |
| Thom Tillis | North Carolina | Republican | YES |
| Ted Budd | North Carolina | Republican | YES |
| Kevin Cramer | North Dakota | Republican | YES |
| John Hoeven | North Dakota | Republican | YES |
| Bernie Moreno | Ohio | Republican | YES |
| J.D. Vance | Ohio | Republican | YES |
| Markwayne Mullin | Oklahoma | Republican | YES |
| James Lankford | Oklahoma | Republican | YES |
| Dave McCormick | Pennsylvania | Republican | YES |
| Lindsey Graham | South Carolina | Republican | YES |
| Tim Scott | South Carolina | Republican | YES |
| Mike Rounds | South Dakota | Republican | YES |
| John Thune | South Dakota | Republican | YES |
| Marsha Blackburn | Tennessee | Republican | YES |
| Bill Hagerty | Tennessee | Republican | YES |
| Ted Cruz | Texas | Republican | YES |
| John Cornyn | Texas | Republican | YES |
| John Curtis | Utah | Republican | Toss-Up |
| Mike Lee | Utah | Republican | YES |
| Jim Justice | West Virginia | Republican | YES |
| Shelley Moore Capito | West Virginia | Republican | YES |
| Ron Johnson | Wisconsin | Republican | YES |
| John Barrasso | Wyoming | Republican | YES |
| Cynthia Lummis | Wyoming | Republican | YES |
