In the first few days of Donald Trump’s second term, the 47th president of the United States has signed a slew of executive orders and pardoned over 1,500 January 6 rioters and Ross Ulbricht while escalating threats of tariffs on some of the country’s biggest trading partners such as Canada and Mexico.
For better or worse, the news cycle as it relates to the Trump administration is unlikely to slow down. Trump is known for being unpredictable. His ‘outsider’ persona fueled the populist movement that elected him first in 2016 and again in 2024 while leading to an unprecedented degree of uncertainty.
Having promised “the most extraordinary first 100 days of any presidency in American history,” there are still plenty of policies Trump plans to carry out, both through executive action and through the Republican-controlled legislative branch.
Extraordinary, of course, is in the eye of the beholder. For those who want to know what is exactly coming or have predictions of their own, the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Manifold provides useful forecasting tools for observers and speculators alike.
Across the top prediction markets, there are hundreds of questions-turned-betting markets that are translating real-money predictions into actionable policy forecasts. And if there’s one thing about Trump that is certain, it’s that he will continue to serve up a whirlwind of headline-grabbing, retail-friendly spectacles to bet trade on in the short term.
Here’s a non-exhaustive list of predictions for Trump’s first 100 days and beyond, according to prediction markets. Have takes of your own? Get in on the action with a $20 bonus using our Kalshi promo.
Will Trump declassify Epstein documents in his first 100 days?
There’s roughly a 90% chance that Trump more JFK files this year, but traders are not confident that he will declassify the Epstein documents in his first 100 days.
During a June 2024 interview, Trump hesitated when asked about declassifying Epstein-related files, expressing concern about releasing potentially “phony stuff” that could affect people’s lives.
How many Cabinet members will Trump get confirmed before March?
As of Jan. 22, 2025, the Senate has confirmed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, marking the first Cabinet confirmation of President Donald Trump’s second term. The confirmation process for other nominees is underway, with several facing contentious hearings. Trump’s most controversial nominees include Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., all of whom are still likely to be confirmed but may face drawn-out hearings if more moderate Republican senators are left unswayed. Republicans have a majority in the Senate but traders should monitor the progress of each nominee’s confirmation process.
Who will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?
Trump kicked off his presidency by granting clemency to over 1,500 individuals charged in connection with the January 6 attack on the Capitol, plus a full and unconditional pardon to Ross Ulbricht, the notorious founder of the dark web marketplace Silk Road. Among other pardons are former Trump advisor Steven Bannon and Democratic New York City Mayor Eric Adams.
Will Trump take action on voter IDs requirements in his first 100 days?
The Trump administration is increasingly like to take action on voter ID requirements, as Kalshi’s forecast has jumped from 50% on Jan. 5 to 80% on the week of the inauguration. As one trader points out, “according to all the first 100 day rules, all he has to do is simply issue an ‘executive order’ or take ‘executive action’ so this doesn’t even have to be a real bill introduced.”
On the other hand, “there’s just no elections anytime soon, so first 100 days might not make sense because he can try to do this legislatively.”
Which country will Trump impose travel ban on the first 100 days?
One of Trump’s first actions as president in 2017 was implementing a travel ban targeting several Muslim-majority nations. During his 2024 campaign, he pledged to reinstate the ban if re-elected.
On Monday, his first day back in office, Trump signed an executive order mandating “enhanced screening and vetting” for travelers seeking U.S. visas. The order also requires a report to be submitted within 60 days, identifying countries with inadequate vetting and screening processes. Based on this report, Trump could implement partial or full restrictions on nationals from those countries
The initial ban targeted five countries: Yemen, Syria, Iran, Libya, and Somalia, before expanding to Eritrea, Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Sudan, and Tanzania. These are all countries to keep your eyes on if you’re trading these markets.
Will Trump take action to restrict abortion in his first 100 days?
Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission (ERLC) is urging Trump to restrict abortion access through several key actions. Recommendations include reaffirming the Hyde Amendment, which bans federal funding for abortions, and reimplementing the Mexico City Policy, prohibiting taxpayer dollars from funding abortions overseas. The ERLC also advocates reversing Biden-era policies that expanded access to abortion pills, such as telehealth prescriptions and local pharmacy availability. While Trump cannot enact a national abortion ban without Congress, his administration could influence reproductive rights by revising medication abortion guidelines or revoking approval of drugs like mifepristone.
Will Trump expand the H-1B program?
The MAGA movement is divided when it comes to H-1B visas. While the national conservative wing demands strict immigration restrictions across the board, advisors such as Elon Musk and Ramaswamy have defended the H-1B program.
The president seems to lean towards supporting expansion of the H-1B program as a way to welcome the “right immigrants.” He recently expressed support for attracting “very competent people,” even acknowledging his own use of the program.
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
Ahead of his second term, President Trump expressed intentions to reclaim control of the Panama Canal, citing concerns over alleged Chinese influence and what he deems exorbitant fees imposed on American vessels. Geopolitical realities makes Trump’s quest an uphill battle, which the market is clearly pricing in.
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
In addition to the Panama Canal, Trump is also interested in acquiring Greenland, citing its strategic importance and resource potential. He has described control of the island as “an absolute necessity” for U.S. national security. In response, Greenland’s Prime Minister, emphasized that Greenlanders have no desire to become Americans.
Given existing dynamics, while the Trump administration may pursue negotiations, the acquisition of any part of Greenland rightfully remains unlikely, according to prediction markets.
Will ‘no tax on tips’ become law this year?
The “No Tax on Tips Act” has been reintroduced by Senators Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL), aligning with President Trump’s campaign promis to exempt tips from federal income tax. The bill, if passed, will allow traditionally tipped employees to claim a 100% deduction on tipped wages, up to $25,000 annually. The bill has bipartisan support, including co-sponsorship from Democratic Senators Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto.
