After a fiery debate on Sept. 10, the Harris campaign requests a sequel while the Trump campaign’s non-commitment fuels volatility in prediction markets.
On Kalshi, YES shares for exactly one more debate started at 44 cents on Tuesday, edging up to 47 cents about a half-hour after the candidates took the stage in Philadelphia. By 1:11 AM on Sept. 11, shares jumped to 56 cents as optimism for one more debate grew. Yet, by 2:40 PM, there were more sharp fluctuations, with the same shares plunging to 43 cents before rebounding to 51 cents by midnight.
What’s behind the volatility? Uncertainty. Traders aren’t confident they know any more than you and I do. The chances of exactly one more debate is roughly a coin flip as of 12 AM Thursday, Sept. 12.
What’s the Harris campaign saying? “Vice President Harris is ready for a second debate. Is Donald Trump?” Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said in a statement shortly after the ABC debate concluded.
What’s the Trump campaign saying? The former president has shied away from committing to a second debate with Harris, saying, “The reason you do a second debate is if you lose, and they lost” but that he “will think about it.”
Who won the first debate? Reactions to the debate were nearly unanimous, agreeing that Harris bested Trump. A FOX News voter panel sided with the Democratic nominee 12-to-5, conservative commentator Dough Schoen wrote that Harris was the clear winner, and Jesse Watters even admitted that “This race just got tighter.” Sixty-three percent of debate-watchers from CNN’s flash poll — using the same methodology that gave Trump a 34-point win over Biden in June — thought Harris won. Meanwhile, Elon Musk and Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy made similar concessions on social media.
How will debate affect the race? It’s safe to say the debate helped Harris but we’ll need more time before determining to what extent. According to Nate Silver, it takes four to seven days to see how the debate performances impact high-quality national polls, and two weeks to “have about as reliable a gauge of the impact of the debate as we’re ever going to get.”
In the meantime, we can turn to 2024 presidential election winner prices across Polymarket and Predictit. Harris’ price has increased on both platforms.
Why would Trump not debate again? After Trump’s poor performance, his campaign may have lost confidence in his ability to defeat Harris on the debate stage. If Trump’s campaign thinks he is in the lead, then it’s hard to imagine that they will invite any unnecessary risk.
Why would Trump debate again? Trump might agree to another showdown if the Harris campaign agrees to a debate on FOX News. However, Trump suggested that he would need his pick of moderators. Another possibility is that Trump is goaded into a rematch to save face.
Why would Harris not debate again? Right now, the most plausible reason for Harris to avoid a debate is if Trump agrees to only debate on FOX News. The news outlet sent a letter to both candidates formally proposing another debate on their network in October. FOX News Media president & Executive Editor Jay Wallace and Vice President of Politics Jessica Loker offered up Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum as moderators. Harris is currently ahead in the polls and may not see value in risking her lead in the FOX debate.
Why would Harris debate again? Harris proved strong in her first debate, and could make further appeals to swing voters in a second debate. If she’s still trailing in the polls, Harris may need the opportunity to reach voters who watch FOX News.
The bottom line: Debates are a zero-sum game. Either candidate A gains more votes and candidate B loses an equal amount, vice versa, or things remain the same. In no scenario do both candidates benefit from a debate, which is partly why it’s so difficult to predict if there will be another meeting between Trump and Harris.
Prediction markets will likely emit uncertainty for a week or two, until the campaigns consume reliable post-debate polling data and reassess their positions on the political chess board.
Absent an ego-driven decision, it’s a longshot for Trump to step back into the ring if his campaign believes he is the favorite to win the election without an additional debate. However, if Harris successfully flips the scorecard in the short term, Trump may be convinced to take another swing if his conditions are met — yet then, the question becomes why would Kamala step onto the stage with Donald Trump and a pair of FOX News moderators?
This is game theory at its finest, and if the outline above is accurate, it seems like it’s going to take a parlay of sorts to get these two on stage together a second time
