On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, faced off with President Trump and Vice President Vance in the Oval Office. Trump falsely accused Zelensky of being a dictator, while Vance said he was ungrateful for U.S. aid.
Trump and Vance’s provocation invited condemnation from democratic allies and praise from actual dictators. But despite talks between the U.S. and Ukraine falling apart, prediction markets suggest Zelensky will bring the Americans back to his side. On Tuesday, crypto prediction market platform Polymarket gave Zelensky an 80% chance of reaching a minerals deal with the United States by April.
The minerals deal would give U.S. companies priority in future mining deals in Ukraine. The economic investment would help Ukraine rebuild and give Trump a foreign policy victory. While there were no official reports of a deal on Tuesday afternoon, the odds had come a long way since the Oval Office confrontation.
On Feb. 28, Polymarket odds of a minerals deal dropped from 97% to about 45%. Trump’s eruption in the Oval Office made it seem like a deal between the United States and Ukraine was untenable. On March 3, Trump paused military aid to Ukraine, increasing pressure on Zelensky even as European leaders rallied to his cause. From March 3 to 4, odds of a deal rose from 43% to a high of 93%.
Security is more important than pride
During Trump’s first term, world leaders discovered how important flattery was to him. They haven’t hesitated to deploy it in Trump’s second term.
U.K. Prime Minister Kier Starmer brought Trump a letter from the king inviting him to a state dinner, which has “never happened before.” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called Trump “very smart” before calling his tariffs on Canadian goods “very stupid.”
Zelensky’s characterization of his Oval Office meeting as “regrettable” and support of a peace plan “under President Trump’s strong leadership” mark a shift toward flattery. A mineral agreement would be a gesture toward favorable terms that Trump can take credit for. Quick terms that Trump could announce in a major address would be even more flattering for Trump, and would potentially settle related prediction markets.
