On Monday, the Atlantic revealed that its editor-in-chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, was added to a group chat of Cabinet officials planning to bomb Yemen. It’s what Politico called “one of the dumbest security breaches of recent times.”
Details in the chat included the plan to bomb Houthi rebels and the types of weapons that would be used in Yemen. These sensitive details have led to calls for firing Mike Waltz, the national security advisor who added Goldberg to the group chat on the app Signal.
Prediction market platform Kalshi only has Waltz’s odds of resigning before May at 17%. According to Kalshi’s full rules, the market will also resolve to ‘Yes’ if Waltz announces his intention to resign.
However, Waltz isn’t the only high-level national security figure implicated in the national security fiasco.
Hegseth in hot water, too
In the wake of “Signalgate,” the odds of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth being the first Cabinet member to leave surged from 8% to 22%. Hegseth was an active member of the Yemen group chat and did not seem to notice Goldberg’s presence. All the while, Hegseth texted hour-by-hour details of which jets, drones, and missiles would launch at which targets at which times.
Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s odds of leaving first have fallen from 35% to 26% as attention moves from Trump’s tariffs to Hegseth’s role in Signalgate. Politico has suggested that Lutnick could take the blame for the economic downturn coming from Trump’s tariffs, making the commerce secretary a prime target for the first Cabinet departure.
As the Trump administration continues to broil in scandal, markets like these will continue to make large price movements and create new opportunities for traders looking to profit from the turmoil.
