Thunderbolts* will be Marvel’s second feature film of 2025. After the underwhelming performance of Captain America: Brave New World, superhero fatigue and poor overall quality seem to be taking a toll. Traders on Kalshi’s Rotten Tomatoes market for Thunderbolts* remain uncertain about how the film will be received.
When the Kalshi market first launched on March 28, 2025, the forecasted score was at 64. Now, after some early buzz from fan screenings, the predicted score has shot up to 83.
Thunderbolts* comes out on May 2, 2025, with the social media embargo lifted as of April 22 and the review embargo lifting on April 29. Let’s take a closer look at current odds and trends for Thunderbolts*.
Could Thunderbolts* find success at the box office?
Thunderbolts* is the latest Marvel movie in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). It is the final film in Phase Five of the MCU and will be followed by The Fantastic Four: First Steps in July.
After finding themselves ensnared in a death trap set by Valentina Allegra de Fontaine, these disillusioned castoffs must embark on a dangerous mission that will force them to confront the darkest corners of their pasts.
The film features many actors from past Marvel projects returning to reprise their roles. The cast includes Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, Lewis Pullman, Geraldine Viswanathan, David Harbour, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, to name a few.
This star-studded cast may be able to win over critics who are fans, but given that all these actors are returning, the novelty of their superhero roles may have worn off.
Critical reception of The Multiverse Saga MCU movies
Phases four through six are part of the MCU’s Multiverse Saga. It started back in 2021 with the series Wandavision and will end with Avengers: Doomsday.
But how have the films in this saga performed so far?
| Movie | Rotten Tomatoes |
| Phase | Four |
| Black Widow (2021) | 79% |
| Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021) | 92% |
| Eternals (2021) | 47% |
| Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) | 93% |
| Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) | 74% |
| Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) | 63% |
| Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) | 84% |
| Phase | Five |
| Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023) | 46% |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (2023) | 82% |
| The Marvels (2023) | 62% |
| Deadpool & Wolverine (2024) | 78% |
| Captain America: Brave New World (2025) | 48% |
Phase Five’s films have declined in quality according to critics. The average score for MCU’s Phase Four films was about 76, and for Phase Five, the average has dropped to 63.
After The Marvels and Captain America: Brave New World, many Marvel fans, as well as more casual fans, felt that Marvel had lost its spark. The films were no longer performing commercially or critically like their predecessors did.
In this case, Deadpool & Wolverine can be seen as an exception, since many consider it to be a film with a lot less connection to the main Marvel storyline compared to the other films in this phase.
Regardless, this lower expectation of the MCU films can be a double-edged sword. Critics can be overly critical and start to be harsher with films like Thunderbolts. However, it also means that if the movie is even slightly better, low standards can boost the movie’s critical reception and Rotten Tomatoes score.
Early reactions to Thunderbolts*
Social media reviews are a great way to see how well a film is initially received. However, if you don’t have any reviews yet, a good thing to watch out for is the lift dates for the social embargo and review embargo.
If they are right before the film releases, this is a sign that the studio doesn’t believe in the film and fears that poor reviews will damage its box office performance. In a good sign for Thunderbolts*, the social media embargo date is two weeks before the release date.
This suggests that earlier fan test screenings were positive, and they believe the film will be well-received, hoping it will drive hype and more people to theaters.
There was a collection of fan screenings on Apr. 22, 2025, and the early reactions were overwhelmingly positive. Twitter user @frickyuu said, #Thunderbolts is one of the best mcu films by a landslide.” While @WongUpdates praised the return to the MCU’s former glory, “The MCU is finally back and better than ever!”
#Thunderbolts takes the Marvel Cinematic Universe into the world of independent cinema. It is unlike any product that came before. Florence Pugh gives a performance worthy of an Oscar. The MCU is finally back and better than ever! Stay till the end for something magnetic 🧲 pic.twitter.com/wzTIbV05EL
— Wong Updates (@WongUpdates) April 22, 2025
The uneven performance of recent Marvel fans should make traders wary of being overconfident. Early fan reactions suggest a strong Rotten Tomatoes performance for Thunderbolts, but that doesn’t always translate to strong critical reviews.
With the social media embargo lifting earlier than usual and the current forecasted score of 83, there’s reason for optimism. Still, Marvel’s recent track record in Phase Five means nothing is guaranteed.
