The newest collaboration between Morgan Wallen and Post Malone is gaining momentum. With the escalating hype, Kalshi has a prediction market on how many consecutive weeks (if any) the latest single I Ain’t Comin’ Back will be at the No. 1 spot on the Billboard Hot 100.
The Billboard Hot 100 tracks data from Friday to Thursday; it is released on Monday and dated to the following Saturday. Because I Ain’t Comin’ Back was released on Friday, April 18, it will first appear on the charts announced on April 28, and post-dated to May 3, 2025.
Before trading on the Morgan Wallen market, here’s what you should know.
Morgan Wallen popularity
Many claim Wallen is currently the biggest star in country music. In 2014, he appeared on The Voice; since then, he has released three studio albums. The artist has been involved in a number of controversies over the years, but his music continues to perform well.
His third studio album, 2023’s One Thing at a Time, was at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 for 19 non-consecutive weeks. It broke the record for most weeks at the top for a country album.
He also topped Billboard’s Hot 100 Artist year-end list in 2023. His success didn’t stop in 2023. In 2024, he released two more songs that topped the Billboard 100. But what about his music in 2025?
Morgan Wallen’s Billboard 100 chart history
Wallen has had three No. 1 hits on the Billboard Hot 100. His first one, Last Night, was released back in 2023.
In 2024, Love Somebody and I Had Some Help (his feature on Post Malone’s song) both hit the top spot. But so far in 2025, his peak positions have been lower.
Before I Ain’t Comin’ Back, Wallen released five singles leading up to his fourth studio album entitled I’m the Problem. Only one of those songs has reached the No. 1 spot.
Song | Billboard Hot 100 Peak Position |
Lies Lies Lies (2024) | 7 |
Love Somebody (2024) | 1 |
Smile (2024) | 4 |
I’m the Problem (2025) | 2 |
Just In Case (2025) | 4 |
Smile was released on New Year’s Eve, so if we consider that song part of 2025 as well, none of the three 2025 releases so far achieved the top spot, despite performing well.
Wallen is likely aiming to release a song with a good shot at hitting No. 1 before his album is released on May 16.
Cases for Wallen's new single being a hit
A new song between Wallen and Malone is a smart move as the latest single, because one of Wallen’s three No. 1 hits was his collaboration with Malone, I Had Some Help.
Moreover, Malone has recently released a country album, and the combined fan bases could help boost Wallen’s I Ain’t Comin’ Back to the top.
Malone is also a great asset to have. He has posted six No. 1 songs, so he has a strong track record on the Billboard Hot 100.
‘I Ain't Comin' Back’ streaming numbers, so far
I Ain’t Comin’ Back performed well on its release day. With 1.95 million streams, the song debuted as the No. 1 song on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart. However, on Saturday, it dropped to No. 3, and on Sunday, it fell to No. 4.
It’s facing tough competition with Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s luther steady at the top, where it has remained for nine consecutive weeks. Drake’s Nokia has mostly landed in the No. 2 spot but it jumped luther on the April 21 chart before falling back to No. 2 on April 22. Currently, Ordinary by Alex Warren is also ahead of Wallen’s single in position No. 3 on the Spotify charts.
But this doesn’t ruin the song’s chances. Their last collaboration, I Had Some Help only reached No. 3 on Spotify’s chart but still debuted at No. 1 on the Hot 100.
This is because the Hot 100 chart isn’t only determined by streams. Also factored in is radio airplay, as well as physical and digital sales.
“Talk of the Charts,” a popular music information and predictions Twitter account, predicts I Ain’t Comin’ Back will debut at the No. 7 spot.
Early Billboard Hot 100 Predictions (chart dated May 3rd, 2025) pic.twitter.com/E1hSgUxkMW
— Talk of the Charts (@talkofthecharts) April 21, 2025
Remember, this Kalshi market isn’t about whether I Ain’t Comin’ Back will debut at No. 1, but whether it will ever reach the top and for how many consecutive weeks.
Even if it doesn’t debut in the top position, it could still climb there in the weeks ahead.
