What to know:
- Kalshi’s Best Actress market has over $1,000,000 in trading volume.
- Demi Moore is the odds-on favorite, but leading critics are divided, with six backing her and four favoring Mikey Madison.
- Past trends show the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA winners are strong indicators, but with this year’s split results, surprises could be in store.
Will Demi Moore or Mikey Madison win the Oscar for Best Actress? This is the question on every film lover’s mind and they are the two frontrunners in the category.
With five incredible performances from five talented actresses, it was hard to predict how this category would look several months ago. But with all the major precursor awards now passed, Moore and Madison are the clear leaders of the pack.
At this year’s Oscars, the 97th Academy Awards, Conan O’Brien will host the ceremony on March 2, 2025. With less than a week left before the big night, Oscar betting has reached a boiling point.
Top prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have had users invest millions of dollars in their favorite categories. On Kalshi’s Best Actress market, there is a trade volume of over $1,000,000.
If you correctly bet on the Oscars, you can win big. Here’s what you need to know for the Best Actress Oscar betting odds.
2025 Best Actress Oscar forecast
Demi Moore
The Substance is over-the-top gory and a commentary on misogyny and aging in the context of a horror film – it’s truly unique. Similarly, we’ve never seen Moore in a role like this ever before.
After being fired from her job due to her age, Moore’s character Hollywood star Elisabeth Sparkle uses a mysterious black market substance to become younger. The side effects are unexpected and the movie takes you on a journey that is equal parts surprising and horrifying.
The film premiered at the 77th Cannes Film Festival and won Best Screenplay. Since then, Moore has won the Best Actress award at two of the major precursors – the Critics’ Choice Award and the Screen Actors Guild Award.
But she didn’t win at all of the precursor awards.
Mikey Madison
Anora follows Ani, a sex worker who falls in love with a Russian oligarch’s son. Things take a turn when the son’s parents find out about his new marriage.
Madison plays Ani in all the comedy, action, and chaos this role entails. While Moore has been in the industry for over 40 years, the young actress has already been acting for over a decade. However, this is her breakout role in the industry.
Anora also premiered at the same Cannes Film Festival and won the top prize – Palme d’Or. Madison has won Best Actress at the BAFTAs and the Independent Spirit Awards.
Past Best Actress Oscar winners
While Moore has more wins under her belt, we have to take a look at which award shows matter when it comes to the Best Actress Oscar betting odds.
Year | Oscar Winner | Golden Globe Winner | Critics’ Choice Winner | BAFTA Winner | SAG Winner |
2010 | Natalie Portman | Natalie Portman | Natalie Portman | Natalie Portman | Natalie Portman |
2011 | Meryl Streep | Meryl Streep | Viola Davis | Meryl Streep | Viola Davis |
2012 | Jennifer Lawrence | Jessica Chastain | Jessica Chastain | Emmanuelle Riva | Jennifer Lawrence |
2013 | Cate Blanchett | Cate Blanchett | Cate Blanchett | Cate Blanchett | Cate Blanchett |
2014 | Julianne Moore | Julianne Moore | Julianne Moore | Julianne Moore | Julianne Moore |
2015 | Brie Larson | Brie Larson | Brie Larson | Brie Larson | Brie Larson |
2016 | Emma Stone | Isabelle Huppert | Natalie Portman | Emma Stone | Emma Stone |
2017 | Frances McDormand | Frances McDormand | Frances McDormand | Frances McDormand | Frances McDormand |
2018 | Olivia Colman | Glenn Close | TIE Glenn Close & Lady Gaga | Olivia Colman | Glenn Close |
2019 | Renée Zellweger | Renée Zellweger | Renée Zellweger | Renée Zellweger | Renée Zellweger |
2020 | Frances McDormand | Andra Day | Carey Mulligan | Frances McDormand | Viola Davis |
2021 | Jessica Chastain | Nicole Kidman | Jessica Chastain | Joanna Scanlan | Jessica Chastain |
2022 | Michelle Yeoh | Cate Blanchett | Cate Blanchett | Cate Blanchett | Michelle Yeoh |
2023 | Emma Stone | Lily Gladstone | Emma Stone | Emma Stone | Lily Gladstone |
2024 | TBD | Fernanda Torres | Demi Moore | Mikey Madison | Demi Moore |
Since 2010, the Best Actress Oscar Award matched all but four times with the SAG Award winner and all but three times with the BAFTAs.
Once before, the SAG Awards and the Critics’ Choice Awards had the same vote and the Oscars differed – in 2011 when they chose Viola Davis and the Academy went for Meryl Streep. However, this time, the Golden Globes also chose a different person – Fernanda Torres.
The reality is that there are is no clear winner and it isn’t clear at all that Torres won’t win the Oscar over both Madison and Moore. But what are the critics saying?
Source | Predicted Winner |
Rolling Stone | Mikey Madison |
Indie Wire | Demi Moore |
Vanity Fair | Demi Moore |
Variety | Mikey Madison |
Hollywood Reporter | Mikey Madison |
Gold Derby | Demi Moore (41/20) |
IMDB | Demi Moore |
Entertainment Weekly | Mikey Madison |
Los Angeles Times | Demi Moore |
The Independent | Demi Moore |
Kalshi | Demi Moore (64%) |
Polymarket | Demi Moore (63%) |
FanDuel | Demi Moore (-240) |
Resources used: Rolling Stone, IndieWire, Vanity Fair, Variety, Hollywood Reporter, Gold Derby, IMDB, Entertainment Weekly, Los Angeles Times, The Independent, and FanDuel.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket predict Moore to win along with FanDuel. However, the critics are split. Six of the critics chose Moore and four of them chose Madison. This is likely not as clean-cut as the Oscar prediction markets suggest.
With uncertainty in the air, betting on Madison — or even Torres — could be a high-risk, high-reward move. Moore may be the frontrunner, but she is not the winner yet.
