Trump could start his second term by pardoning some of the most controversial political figures in the news, including Steve Bannon, Ross Ulbricht, and the Jan. 6 rioters.
The possibilities aren’t limited to Republicans. Kalshi, a popular prediction market, gives Democratic New York City Mayor Eric Adams a 36% chance of being pardoned. Trump’s pardon market has surpassed $1 million in trading volume, with just under three weeks before his inauguration.
Trump’s unconventional mix of potential pardons says as much about his base as it does about him. During his campaign, he pledged to pardon the January 6 rioters and Ross Ulbricht.
In the anti-establishment worldview of Trump’s most ardent supporters, these pardons are among the most urgent and just, but there are others who may receive clemency from the president-elect as he begins his second term.
Who is on Trump's pardon list?
January 6 protestors
Prediction markets show a strong consensus on the likelihood of Trump pardoning at least one January 6 rioter, with Polymarket at 96%, Kalshi at 95%, and Manifold at 93%. Polymarket and Kalshi expect the pardons within his first 100 days, while Manifold extends the timeline to 2028.
On Jan. 6, 2021, rioters stormed the Capitol as Congress sat to confirm Joe Biden’s presidential victory. They injured about 140 police officers and caused about $2.9 million in damage inside and outside the Capitol.
Donald Trump’s false claim that he lost the 2020 election due to ‘widespread fraud’ became one of his most profitable fundraising messages during his 2024 campaign. The January 6 Report found that Trump’s election lies helped him and the Republican National Committee raise $250 million, “much of it from small-dollar donors who were promised their money would ‘Stop the Steal.’”
An accompanying message is that the rioters who were arrested were wrongly persecuted. In his Time Person of the Year interview, Trump said pardons for the rioters “would begin in the first hour…maybe the first nine minutes.”
Trump’s message of a stolen election was a core piece of the MAGA mythology. Pardoning the people who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 would send a strong message to the most ardent believers.
Ross Ulbricht
On the campaign trail, Trump promised to pardon Ulbricht. Ulbricht founded Silk Road, a website on Tor, a browser that lets users use the internet anonymously. Silk Road allowed users to make untraceable transactions for illegal goods and services with bitcoin.
Silk Road’s products included drugs, fake IDs, and illegal services like computer hacking and assassinations. As the FBI closed in on him, Ulbricht commissioned six murders-for-hire – though none were carried out.
Manifold gives Ulbricht a 73% chance of being pardoned or having his sentence commuted before March 2025. Kalshi traders give Ulbricht a 70% chance of being pardoned in Trump’s first 100 days. In the same time period, Polymarket gives Ulbricht a 69% chance of being pardoned.
Ulbricht received a double life sentence for founding and operating Silk Road. But as an early crypto entrepreneur, he has also attracted support from anti-establishment tech figures like Elon Musk. In 2021, Musk called Ulbricht’s sentence a “bit high,” and some libertarians believe crimes committed through the internet “deserve immunity from government authority.”
Pardoning Ulbricht would cement the support of some libertarians and crypto enthusiasts. As an anti-establishment candidate, these two factions are crucial for Trump to maintain voter support throughout his next four years.
Steve Bannon
Steve Bannon is one of the beating hearts of the revolutionary right. Bannon founded Breitbart News, a news organization that promoted far-right conspiracies and beliefs. Over time, the most extreme voices on that site became its main content producers and audience.
Bannon characterized his site as “anti-establishment” and opposed to the “permanent political class.” So, Trump brought him on board as an early advisor in 2017. Bannon called Donald Trump Jr’s 2016 meeting with a Russian lawyer “treasonous.” Saying that the FBI’s investigation into the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia pushed Bannon out of Trump’s orbit.
Since Bannon has such close ties with the MAGA movement, he remains a crucial pillar among many of Trump’s supporters. He has also influenced far-right movements in other countries, like Hungary and Italy.
Given Bannon’s importance to his movement, Trump could be convinced to pardon him for his contempt of Congress charge. In 2022, Bannon refused to comply with a subpoena from the Select Committee investigating the attack on the Capitol. He spent four months in jail for refusing to testify to the Select Committee. After he was released, Bannon styled himself as a political prisoner, a narrative that a pardon would reinforce.
Other possible pardons: crypto libertarians and pop culture stars
Many of the other figures with Trump pardon odds are crypto libertarians. Roger Ver faces charges of tax evasion and is fighting his extradition to the United States from Spain. Julian Assange and Edward Snowden still live outside the United States for revealing sensitive government secrets. Each of these men is a cause the libertarian and tech right has embraced as their own.
Some pop culture icons, like Tiger King, Young Thug, and Diddy, have low chances of receiving early pardons from Trump. There’s also about a 10% chance that Trump pardons himself in his first 100 days.
Eric Adams is the odd one out. Trump mentioned in a press conference that he would consider pardoning Adams for his corruption charges. Kalshi gives Adams a 31% chance of being pardoned. It’s much higher than the pop culture figures, but far from a reliable chance – especially in Trump’s first 100 days.
