If TikTok is sold in April, hopefully there isn’t another blackout. Because where else are we going to doom scroll…
With Washington moving closer to forcing a TikTok sale, prediction markets are heating up over who might acquire the wildly popular video platform. On Polymarket, the odds favor Oracle, with a 40% probability, while other names like Microsoft, Amazon, and even long shots like MrBeast and Trump Media trail behind.
Another question is also gaining attention: “Will TikTok be sold before April?” That market is set to close soon and is currently trading at just 2%, as close to everyone believes no formal sale will be completed before the month ends. However, activity could spike once the new monthly contract opens in April, especially after Vice President JD Vance mentioned that winners of a congressional bidding proposal could be announced on April 5, according to NBC News.
Why Oracle? Or Larry Ellison?
Oracle’s strong showing in prediction markets isn’t random. The company already has a history with TikTok — it was selected in 2020 by the Trump administration as a “trusted technology partner” to manage U.S. user data. Oracle now hosts TikTok’s U.S. traffic under “Project Texas,” a security initiative aimed at preventing Chinese government from accessing American data.
Moreover, Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison has maintained close ties with the Trump administration. His political savvy and cloud infrastructure experience make Oracle a viable bidder if ByteDance is forced to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations.
What’s the difference?
Interestingly, on prediction markets like Polymarket, Larry Ellison is trading at 36%, while Oracle sits at 31%. Why are there two options?
This distinction matters: a bet on Ellison assumes he personally leads or facilitates the acquisition — potentially through Oracle, but also possibly via a private bid, consortium, or shell entity.
Meanwhile, a bet on Oracle implies that the company itself — not necessarily Ellison directly — completes the purchase.
For traders, that 5-point gap reflects the nuance between a corporate acquisition and a founder-led or founder-backed move, and underscores Ellison’s unique role as both Oracle’s chairman and a wildcard operator with deep pockets and political reach.
The case for Oracle
- Pre-existing relationship with TikTok through Project Texas, currently hosting U.S. user data.
- Strong cloud infrastructure and enterprise tools that align with TikTok’s data storage and compliance needs.
- Established track record working with U.S. regulators and federal agencies.
- A familiar, stable enterprise brand that could ease political and regulatory hurdles.
The case for Larry Ellison
- Personally backed Oracle’s 2020 bid for TikTok and remains heavily involved in high-stakes tech deals.
- Known for his bold, sometimes unconventional acquisition style — a solo or consortium-led bid wouldn’t be out of character.
- As Oracle’s chairman and co-founder, he has the influence and resources to act quickly, even outside traditional corporate channels.
What about the others?
While Oracle leads the market, other contenders remain in the conversation:
Microsoft (11%): As a tech behemoth with a diverse portfolio, Microsoft could leverage TikTok to bolster its presence in the social media landscape, complementing its existing platforms.
Frank McCourt (14%): The former Los Angeles Dodgers owner has expressed interest in acquiring TikTok, potentially aiming to diversify his investment portfolio into the tech sector.
Elon Musk and MrBeast (each at 6%): Though less conventional, figures like Elon Musk and YouTuber MrBeast have been mentioned in speculative discussions. Polymarket features markets on whether Musk or MrBeast will acquire TikTok before April, though both are currently trading at minimal odds.
Although ByteDance has not officially agreed to divest TikTok, political momentum is building. The House recently passed a bill mandating a sale or outright ban, and it now heads to the Senate, where a vote could happen in early April. Sen. JD Vance hinted that a decision on next steps could come April 5, a date that may influence how April prediction markets open on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
If a sale is ordered, Oracle’s odds could rise further — and a bidding war may finally begin in earnest.