Traders eyeing who Trump will pick to join his administration face a mixed bag of certainty and surprises, with prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket offering a glimpse into the possible faces of a second Trump White House.
Kalsh’s market asking who will join the Trump administration, according to the market’s resolution criteria, includes anyone hired as:
- Cabinet members
- White House staff
- Senior policy advisors
- Ambassadors
The $2.5 million market has an important caveat. Its trader note states that “Being a part of a non-governmental organization (which the Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, may be) is not sufficient to resolve the Contract.”
The most likely new addition to Trump’s White House staff is Natalie Harp, who has a 74% chance of joining. Harp is a long-time member of Trump’s staff best known for printing favorable articles about him and carrying them around to keep his spirits high.
Polymarket’s version lists Cabinet members alongside other possible White House hires. Outside of the Cabinet, the most likely nominee out of Polymarket’s selections is Kari Lake. Lake is a Trump loyalist who ran for Arizona Governor in 2022 and one of Arizona’s Senate seats in 2024. She lost both races, and Trump tapped her to run Voice of America.
Long-term Trump allies, new tech influencers
Some of the people expected to join Trump’s administration include members of his first term.
For example, Kalshi traders give Avi Berkowitz a 38% chance of joining Trump’s White House team. Berkowitz worked with Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to broker the Abraham Accords, in which the UAE and Bahrain normalized relations with Israel. It was a major foreign policy victory for Trump and a strong achievement for Berkowitz to have been involved in.
New tech figures like David Sacks are in the running for a job in the Trump White House, too. Kalshi gives Sacks a 28% chance of formally joining the Trump administration.
Trump has already named Sacks as his “AI and Crypto Czar.” He will also lead the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, an advisory board for the president.
Like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, Sacks doesn’t yet hold a formal White House position. He’s a “special government employee,” allowing him to work part-time and avoid Senate confirmation.
Other possible names are familiar favorites from the MAGA movement. Ben Carson has a 34% chance of joining Trump’s second administration. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has a 12% of making the cut. Even Mike Pompeo, Trump’s former secretary of state who testified against him in the January 6 hearings, has a 6% of returning to Trump’s White House.
Trump is an unconventional politician, so he’s expected to run an unconventional White House — a reality that prediction markets are clearly factoring.
