Which Movie Will Win the Most Oscars This Year? Expert Picks and Academy Awards Predictions

With 23 awards, there are many opportunities for the biggest movies to rack up wins and become the movie with the most wins. 

If we judge the wins based on the critics’ predicted winners, this is what we would have:

• • Brutalist – 3 wins
    • Original Score
    • Best Cinematography
    • Best Actor
      
      
  • Anora – 3 wins
    
    • Best Picture
    • Best Director 
    • Best Original Screenplay

• • Conclave – 2 wins
    • Best Adapted Screenplay
    • Best Film Editing


• • Substance – 2 wins
    • Best Actress 
    • Best Makeup & Hairstyling
      
      

• • Dune: Part Two – 2 wins
    • • Best Visual Effects

      • Best Sound

• • Wicked – 2 wins
    • Best Costume Design
    • Best Production Design

• • Emilia Pérez – 2 wins
    • Original Song
    • Best Supporting Actress

According to this, Anora and The Brutalist will be tied for the most wins with three each. However, there is probably more nuance to it. 

The film which has the most for-sure wins ahead of time is The Brutalist (Original Score & Best Cinematography) and Conclave (Best Adapted Screenplay & Best Film Editing). They both have fairly certain wins and potential for more wins.

The Best Actor award could go to either Adrien Brody or Timothée Chalamet. If The Brutalist wins, they will have three solid wins. And of course, Anora is the frontrunner in many more categories – Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, and Best Original Screenplay. 

Unfortunately, three of them are not certain. The only one they are likely to win is Best Original Screenplay. Mikey Madison does have a chance for Best Actress but most predict Demi Moore will win. This would knock their number down to three. And then Best Picture and Best Director may be too difficult to call. 

Conclave just won the top Prize at the SAG Awards, which has cast some doubt on Anora’s chances. 

In terms of Best Director, Brady Corbet won at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs. At the Critics’ Choice Awards, Jon M. Chu won who wasn’t nominated in the category at the Oscars. This is another category that would make it too hard to tell if The Brutalist or Anora would win.

If Conclave won Best Picture, Corbet won Best Director, and Moore won Best Actress – Anora would have only one Oscar, which illustrates that the bettors on prediction markets are likely overestimating Anora’s chances. 

The Brutalist can have the most or be tied with Conclave in this scenario. Essentially, Anora would have to win several uncertain categories to be able to take the crown for the most Oscars.

In the end, the Oscars often defy expectations. While Anora could still sweep key categories, its frontrunner status is shakier than the markets suggest. Surprises are all but guaranteed at this year’s Oscars and your Oscar viewing party.