President Trump will give the State of the Union speech on March 4, and popular prediction market platform Kalshi has a mention market on what he will say. Traders can buy and sell contracts on words or phrases Trump will use during his first joint address to Congress since moving back into the White House.
What to expect from Trump’s State of the Union
The State of the Union will be a chance for Trump to articulate his vision for the country and defend his early actions in moving the country closer to that vision.
High-Chance Mentions: The three most likely things Trump will say are:
- Illegal immigrant/Immigration – 94%
- America First – 85%
- DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency – 84%
These high-likelihood outcomes are consistent with Trump’s early actions. He has directed Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to conduct mass arrests of undocumented immigrants throughout the country. America First has been one of his signature slogans since his first term, and DOGE is among his second term’s most public initiatives.
Low-Chance Mentions: The three least likely things Trump will say are:
- Doge / Dogecoin – 9%
- McDonald – 7%
- Sam Altman – 7%
Doge, the cryptocurrency, is a memecoin that has maintained value over time. It’s worth about $0.26, compared to other memecoins that are worth 1/1,000 of a penny. While Musk has tweeted about it before, it’s not among Trump’s legislative priorities. Neither is Sam Altman, the founder of OpenAI and a frequent target of Musk’s ire.
The McDonald mention seems to come from a recognition of Trump’s long-running infatuation with McDonalds. He worked the drive-thru at a Pennsylvania McDonalds late in the 2024 campaign and served it to Robert Kennedy Jr. on Air Force One.
Despite their absurdity, the odds of these mentions aren’t zero. Trump is known for his spontaneity, after all.
