Political rallies are theater, but one thing is guaranteed when Trump takes the stage: you’ll hear his signature blend of grievance, promises, and catchphrases that have defined his political brand. And for the kick-off of America’s 250th anniversary July 4th celebrations, his flair for the dramatic could easily take some patriotic turns.
For prediction market traders, Trump’s words are more than just political signals; they represent serious trading opportunities. That’s why the Kalshi mention market for “What will Trump say during his Iowa State Fairgrounds rally?” is currently buzzing with trading activity.
Trump is scheduled to speak on Thursday, July 3 at 7:30 p.m. CT (8:30 p.m. ET) at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines ahead of the July 4th holiday. Let’s dive into some of the most likely utterances, as well as some long shots, for what Trump might say during the July 3rd rally. Note: Listed odds current as of Wednesday afternoon.
High likelihood Trump mentions
‘Fake News’ (69%)
Why Trump might say it: His relationship with the press remains contentious, and Iowa rallies often feature heated exchanges with media.
Market analysis: Two-thirds probability reflects Trump’s reliable antagonism toward mainstream media. Expect classic “fake news media” refrains, especially since Iran is still on the top of his mind.
‘Patriot’ (81%)
Why Trump might say it: More than just flag-waving, “patriot” has become Trump’s way of drawing lines between his supporters and everyone else.
Market analysis: High confidence bet. On the eve of July 4th in heartland America, this rhetoric practically writes itself.
‘Court’ (77%)
Why Trump might say it: With ongoing legal battles, Trump rarely avoids addressing his courtroom experiences head-on.
Market analysis: Strong probability.
‘Golden Age’ (60%)
Why Trump might say it: This phrase encapsulates Trump’s vision of American restoration under his leadership.
Market analysis: Even money bet with upside. “Golden Age” represents Trump’s most optimistic messaging, promising not just to fix problems but to usher in unprecedented prosperity.
‘Disgrace’ (48%)
Why Trump might say it: From Biden policies to legal proceedings, “disgrace” is Trump’s go-to condemnation.
Market analysis: Coin flip with real potential.
‘Warrior’ (54%)
Why Trump might say it: Trump often casts himself and supporters as warriors fighting corrupt systems.
Market analysis: Undervalued opportunity.
Coin flips and longshot potentials
‘Woke’ (38%)
Why Trump might say it: Despite seeming like a Trump staple, “woke” isn’t always his preferred culture war term.
Market analysis: Long shot with payoff potential. Trump might use “radical left” instead.
‘Corn’ (56%)
Why Trump might say it: Iowa’s agricultural identity runs deep, and corn represents both economic and cultural significance.
Market analysis: Intriguing value bet. Trump typically goes broader with “farmers” or “agriculture,” but Iowa’s corn-centric economy might warrant specific mention. Trade deals and energy policy provide natural openings.
‘Hawkeye’ (33%)
Why Trump might say it: Referencing Iowa’s beloved university mascot or state nickname shows local connection.
Market analysis: Dark horse candidate. Trump rarely gets this specific with local references, but Iowa crowds love when politicians acknowledge state pride. Could emerge during crowd interaction.
‘Autopen’ (50%)
Why Trump might say it: Recent legal focus on document authenticity makes this technical term surprisingly relevant.
Market analysis: Fascinating contrarian bet. “Autopen” sounds obscure but has become a Trump favorite derogatory reference to former president Biden’s alleged incompetence.
Iowa rally wildcard terms: ‘Obama,’ ‘Russia,’ and ‘Newscum’
Some traders are betting on wildcards that are long shots but not impossible. Contracts on these terms could pay off big if they are uttered.
Obama (26%) – Trump still occasionally invokes the former president, especially regarding policy contrasts.
Russia (39%) – Given ongoing global tensions, foreign policy discussions could include Russia mentions.
Newscum (22%) – Trump’s nickname for California Governor Gavin Newsom…Enough said?
Will Trump stick to script or go off-message?
Trump’s rallies blend prepared remarks with improvised tangents, making prediction markets particularly volatile. Iowa’s agricultural importance could prompt unexpected references to farming, trade, or energy policy. Legal developments might inject courtroom terminology into his usual political vocabulary.
One factor working against some obvious choices: Trump sometimes assumes his audience knows his catchphrases so well that he doesn’t need to repeat them. This might explain why MAGA is “only” at 80% despite being his signature slogan.
The July 3rd timing, just before Independence Day, could elevate patriotic language and birthday references to America. But after all, it’s up to President Trump whether he will stick entirely to seasonal themes, or drop in some political commentary wildcards.
