In many ways, Trump’s fifth week was similar to his fourth. The largest events included two high-profile Cabinet confirmations, his escalating hostility toward Ukraine, and more high-profile musings about a third Trump term.
Outside of Trump’s immediate world, Mitch McConnell announced his retirement from the Senate in 2026. It’s a monumental shift in the Republican Senate caucus that merited its own prediction market.
Platforms like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket offered prediction markets on these events. Some events settled even through early upsets. Others are still live for traders interested in adding them to the contracts to their portfolios.
How many senators confirmed Howard Lutnick as commerce secretary?
Market Settlement: The market settled at 51 or fewer confirmation votes in the Senate.
Analysis: On Tuesday, the Senate confirmed Lutnick as Trump’s Secretary of Commerce in a 51-45 vote. Two Democrats and two Republicans were absent from the vote, undermining the expected outcome of a 53-47 vote.
Lutnick will now be in charge of determining tariff rates on other countries and discontinuing Biden-era subsidies, like the ones that fund domestic microchip manufacturing. He’s also expected to shape pro-crypto regulations that could benefit prediction markets as well.
How many senators voted to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?
Market Settlement: The market settled at 51 senators voting to confirm Patel.
Analysis: Before the confirmation vote, the Senate voted on cloture, the decision to end debate on Patel’s nomination and bring it to a vote. Susan Collins announced that she would not support Patel’s confirmation during cloture. The most likely outcome went from 52 senators to 51. Lisa Murkowski also voted against Patel, giving him all but two Republican votes to be confirmed.
Will Ukraine and Russia reach a ceasefire agreement in 2025?
Market Price: On Sunday, Polymarket traders gave Russia and Ukraine a 69% chance of reaching a ceasefire agreement in 2025.
Settlement Rules: A ceasefire that would resolve the market is “defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.”
Analysis: Trump and Elon Musk escalated their attacks on Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky. Trump called Zelensky a dictator and falsely accused him of starting the war in Ukraine. (The war began with Russia’s invasion in 2022, which itself was an escalation of a conflict that began in 2014.) Musk has echoed Trump’s false claims about Zelensky across X.
As Trump draws closer to Russia to end the war in Ukraine, a ceasefire agreement remains possible in 2025. It just may not be on the terms that supporters of Ukrainian democracy wanted.
Will Trump be allowed to run for a third presidential term?
Market Price: On Sunday, Kalshi traders gave Trump a 15% chance of being able to run for a third presidential term.
Settlement Rules: The market will settle to Yes if the 22nd Amendment, which limits presidents to two terms, is repealed. It will also settle to Yes if the Supreme Court interprets the 22nd Amendment to allow Trump to run for a second consecutive term, his third overall.
Analysis: Traders have been speculating about Trump running for a third term since his second inauguration. While the 22nd Amendment limits presidents to two terms, the Supreme Court could reinterpret it to mean two consecutive terms. Trump brought a third term up again, and the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) included groups pushing for a third Trump term. Steve Bannon, a major figure within the MAGA movement, also endorsed the idea, adding an influential member of Trump’s coalition to the third term project.
Will Mitch McConnell resign before the midterms?
Market Price: On Sunday, Kalshi traders forecasted a 39% chance that McConnell will resign from the Senate before the 2026 midterms.
Settlement Rules: The market will settle to Yes if McConnell resigns or announces that he’ll resign before the midterms. This market will not settle to Yes if McConnell dies in office.
Analysis: After Senator Collins announced she would not vote to confirm Patel, McConnell announced that he would not seek re-election in 2028. McConnell was the longest-serving Republican Majority Leader in the Senate’s history, making his retirement announcement the end of an era.
McConnell is a member of the original conservative movement that brought Ronald Reagan to the White House in 1980. Under his leadership, he confirmed Trump’s three Supreme Court justices and filled the federal bench with conservative judges. He also pioneered strongarm tactics in the Senate, like delaying Barack Obama’s federal judge confirmations so Trump could fill them.
McConnell was one of the most consequential senators and politicians in modern history. His retirement marks the passage of the old conservative movement under Reagan to the MAGA movement under Trump. Calling 2026 the end of an era is a cliche, but in McConnell’s case, it’s warranted.
His health scares throughout his current term have led to speculations that he might retire before the 2026 midterms. Since he’s clarified that his political career is over, he no longer has to put his party above his beliefs or interests.
