Trump’s third week in office included votes that moved his most controversial Cabinet picks closer to their final Senate votes. He also floated proposals to occupy Gaza and eliminate the Department of Education.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk spent much of the week in the news regarding his proposed government spending cuts. Musk posted that he “[fed] USAID into the wood chipper” over the previous weekend and continued drawing controversy over DOGE’s access to sensitive U.S. citizen data through the Treasury Department.
These six prediction markets cover some of the largest stories from week three of the new Trump administration.
How much government spending will Trump and Musk cut this year?
Forecast Change: $250 billion to $300 billion and back again
Settlement Details: The market resolves based on the government’s spending decrease as reported by FRED.
Market Analysis: On Monday, Musk announced that he had gutted USAID, an agency with a roughly $50 billion budget. That was before Musk announced that he would also target the Department of Education, which Trump is considering eliminating altogether. Kalshi’s forecast spiked from $250 billion to $300 billion in a matter of hours.
Will Trump eliminate the Department of Education this year?
Price Change: 21% at the beginning of the week to 39% at the end of the week
Settlement Details: The market resolves to Yes if Congress sunsets or eliminates the Department of Education.
Market Analysis: On Tuesday, reports surfaced that Trump was considering an executive order urging Congress to abolish the Department of Education. Musk’s aggressive cutting and Republican trifecta make this set of Trump’s threats credible. These reports caused a price spike from 21% to a peak of 54% over about a day and a half. The odds settled in the high 30s over the weekend.
Will the United States take over Gaza in 2025?
Price Change: 18% at the market’s opening to 12% at the end of the week
Settlement Details: The market resolves to Yes if the United States assumes “direct governance, military occupation with administrative authority, or any formal arrangement where the U.S. exercises primary governing authority over Gaza territory.”
Market Analysis: On Tuesday, Trump announced that the United States would take over Gaza and permanently resettle about 2 million Palestinians in other Arab countries. It surprised the Israeli prime minister, senior White House staff, and the world. Trump and his surrogates walked back parts of that plan, but now there’s a simmering possibility of U.S. occupation of Gaza. The night of Trump’s announcement, Polymarket launched a market on U.S. control of Gaza in 2025, which traders find unlikely – but not impossible.
How many senators will vote to confirm RFK?
Forecast Change: Odds of 52 senators rose from 16% to 49%
Settlement Details: The market resolves to the number of senators who vote to confirm Kennedy as HHS Secretary by April 30.
Market Analysis: The Senate Finance Committee voted along party lines to advance Kennedy’s nomination to a full Senate vote. Republican Bill Cassidy, a physician who challenged Kennedy’s anti-vax positions, was the key swing vote in advancing Kennedy’s nomination. PredictIt’s traders forecast 52 senators voting for Kennedy, showing high confidence in Senate Republicans falling in line behind Trump’s choice.
How many senators will vote to confirm Gabbard?
Week’s Price Change: Odds of 52 senators rose from 12% to 51%
Settlement Details: The market resolves to the number of senators who vote to confirm Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence.
Market Analysis: The Senate Intelligence Committee voted to bring Gabbard to a full Senate vote on her DNI confirmation. Like Kennedy, Gabbard’s vote fell along party lines. She faced scrutiny in her public hearings regarding her previous conciliatory words for dictator Bashar al-Asaad and her support for Edward Snowden circumventing whistleblower policies that protect employees and national security secrets. PredictIt traders also expect her to get 52 votes but think 51 votes is also a reasonable possibility.
How many senators will vote to confirm Patel?
Price Change: Odds of 52 senators rose from 23% to 49%
Settlement Details: The market resolves to the number of senators who vote to confirm Patel as FBI Director.
Market Analysis: Patel testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee, but Democrats delayed the committee’s vote through a procedural motion. Republicans largely fell in line behind Patel during his committee hearing, while Democrats challenged him on his past support for January 6 rioters. Patel denied that he would use the FBI to seek retribution against Trump’s political enemies despite his previous support for the insurrection and its members. PredictIt traders forecast Patel getting between 51 and 53 Senate votes, believing 52 votes is the most likely outcome.
