Trump’s sixth week was one of his most explosive. He fought with Volodymyr Zelensky on television, Elon Musk threatened a fresh round of federal job cuts, and Pam Bondi’s release of Epstein files contained none of the revelations that Epstein watchers hoped for.
Uniquely, some of the most consequential markets haven’t resolved yet. There are still large market movements that traders can take advantage of across the political markets tied to the week’s largest news stories.
How many senators will vote for Linda McMahon?
Market Price: On Saturday, PredictIt traders gave McMahon an 85% chance of being confirmed with 52 or fewer senators.
Settlement Terms: The number of senators who vote to confirm McMahon will decide how this market is settled.
Analysis: McMahon is Trump’s nominee for education secretary, and she is expected to be confirmed on a party-line vote. One Republican senator, Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), is recovering from a head injury, so traders were worried McMahon would only have 52 Republican senators present to confirm her. However, he flew back to Washington, D.C. on Monday, raising the price of 53 to 54 senators from 12 cents to 32 cents. PredictIt traders who bought contracts on 53 or 54 senators already got high returns for the risks they took.
What’s Next: One of the last Trump Cabinet votes in the Senate will be for Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Trump’s labor secretary nominee. She’s unique among the recent Cabinet picks because she has attracted Democratic support. PredictIt traders only give her a 33% chance of being confirmed by 60 or fewer senators. While she distanced herself from her previous support of a pro-union bill, she’s still expected to be one of Trump’s bipartisan confirmations.
How likely is a government shutdown this year?
Market Price: On Saturday, Kalshi traders forecasted a 54% chance of a government shutdown this year.
Settlement Terms: Any government shutdown before 10 am ET on Jan. 1, 2026, will resolve this market to Yes.
Analysis: On Tuesday, the House of Representatives passed a funding resolution that began the process of implementing Trump’s desired budget cuts. Speaker Johnson had four Republicans hesitant to support it due to fears of cuts to popular programs like Medicaid.
Johnson has until March 14 to pass a funding bill to avoid a government shutdown, which he only avoided with hours to spare in December. In a related market, Johnson has a 31% chance of no longer being speaker of the House in 2025.
What will Trump say during the State of the Union?
Market Price: According to Kalshi traders, Trump is most likely to say Illegal Immigrant/Immigration (93%), Mexico (88%), and America First (88%). His least likely words are Sam Altman (7%), McDonald (6%), Doge/Dogecoin (6%).
Settlement Terms: If Trump says the exact word or phrase listed, then the market will resolve to count that word or phrase as a Yes.
Analysis: Even though the first State of the Union speech isn’t technically considered a “State of the Union,” Trump will deliver a speech to a joint session of Congress with the same structure and intent as an official State of the Union speech.
The president’s March 4 address will be a chance to address problems and propose solutions. His previous campaign and presidential speeches offer clues about topics he might bring up. Recent news, like his confrontation with Zelensky, could also influence Tuesday’s topics, especially if he goes off-script during his address.
How many government jobs will Trump and Musk cut in 2025?
Market Price: As of Sunday morning, Kalshi traders forecast Musk and Trump will cut 361,000 government jobs.
Settlement Terms: The number of government jobs is decided by Federal Reserve employment figures.
Analysis: At the end of Trump’s fifth week, Musk’s team sent an email to all federal employees asking for five things they did—or else resign. The backlash to that email took up much of week six and has culminated in a second email request for weekly activities with adjustments for sensitive information.
Meanwhile, Kalshi’s traders adjusted their expectations for the number of government jobs cut on Wednesday after a new memo circulated planning new layoffs. The forecast spiked from about 310,000 to almost 370,000.
Will the Trump administration release new Epstein files by May 2025?
Market Price: On Sunday morning, Kalshi traders gave the Trump administration a 59% chance of releasing new Epstein files by May 2025.
Settlement Terms: Any documents related to Epstein must be previously unreleased to resolve the market to Yes.
Analysis: On Thursday, Attorney General Pam Bondi released a batch of files related to Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking case. The files had been leaked and in public circulation before, so Kalshi’s market on whether the administration will reveal new documents is still open. After the underwhelming release, Kalshi’s odds of new documents by May 2025 dropped from 95% to 54%.
Will Trump end the war in Ukraine in his first 90 days?
Market Price: On Sunday afternoon, Polymarket traders gave Trump a 20% chance of ending the war in Ukraine in his first 90 days.
Settlement Terms: Both Russia and Ukraine must announce a ceasefire for this market to resolve to Yes.
Analysis: On Friday, Trump and J.D. Vance clashed with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during their public meeting in the Oval Office. Trump falsely accused Zelensky of being a dictator, and Vance accused Zelensky of being ungrateful for the American aid he’s received since 2022. In the context of Trump’s closer ties with Russia, the aggressor in the war, European leaders and American NATO allies have expressed alarm at reduced American support.
Polymarket’s odds of the war ending dropped sharply after the Oval Office confrontation, falling from 30% to 20%.
